I’m getting emails from Romney fans asking how can I be down on Romney’s chances when Huckabee, Romney, and McCain have all won early contests? Romney won Wyoming, after all. I’m sorry, folks, but this won’t wash: Wyoming was not contested the way the other states were, and doesn’t have the significance for anyone that Iowa and New Hampshire do. Also, Romney’s second place finishes were much worse than they seem. He badly outspent both Huckabee and McCain in states where he had invested untold amounts of time and energy. Coming in second really hurts. Also, I understand the impulse to discount Iowa and New Hampshire, but this is how the process was set up and works–Romney was banking on it working for him and didn’t. Now, it may work for McCain. I know a lot of conservatives are appalled by the prospect of McCain getting the nomination, but the best way to stop it would have been to coalesce around a conservative alternative before he got a head of steam out of New Hampshire. It has been a crazy process so far, with lots of surprises, so anything can happen. But the chances of (from my point of view) good things happening would be drastically increased if Romney manages to win Michigan.