A reader e-mails:

After reading your post on Bob Stein’s article, I was curious about the ‘huge surge in the labor force” that occurs at the end of each recession. I went to the bureau of labor statistics website and quickly put together a few graphs. The first is the early 80’s recession, which shows an essentially straight line in jobless rates for about 18 months and then an abrupt turn downward. Nope, no ‘labor force surge’ apparent there. Then I looked at another spike in unemployment, from 1973-74. Again, no spike, essentially a straight line until the recovery began.
I looked at two other recessions – the early 90’s and then late 50’s. Again, no discernible, last gasp spike as people enter the work force. So then what the heck is Bob Stein talking about?

Bob Stein responds:

The reader is making the mistake of trying to impute labor force shifts by looking at the jobless rate itself. Here are charts showing the shifts in labor force growth associated with prior recessions. Shaded areas are recessions. Notice how labor force growth tends to accelerate late in recessions and very early in recoveries. To be clear, I am using a three month moving average to smooth out monthly volatility.
2001:
1991: