The consensus among analysts today seems to be that Obamacare will — gulp — pass.

–Keith Hennessey agrees with Rich that “it’s all about the House.” He predicts that if Nancy Pelosi gets 216 votes in the House, there is a “4 in 5″ chance that Obamacare will be signed into law. But, Hennessey says, that’s a big ‘if.’

–Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight calls the bill “a favorite” to pass, but like Hennessey suggests that this macro-level prediction papers over a great number of “micro” challenges in holding the votes together in the House.

–InTrade puts the odds of passage by June at right about 50 percent, but the momentum is in the direction of passage.

–Neera Tanden, a veteran of HillaryCare, is most bullish of all, giving the bill a 75 percent chance and saying its failure would be a “catastrophe.”