“Losing is a great unifier,” says Brulte, “and Republicans of every description lost in 1998.” Dreier says that California Republicans have a “thirst to win” and that Bush is the like- liest winner. Merksamer, who has not endorsed anyone, says Californians prefer westerners and that Bush projects a “western image like Goldwater and Reagan did.” Quinn notes that Davis carried 15 legislative districts now repre- sented by Republicans, some of whom will be forced out by the state’s term-limits law in 2000. Without a strong presidential candidate, several of these districts could be lost.
Bush appeals to endangered Republicans because he is a proven winner in a populous and diverse state with many similar characteristics to California, including a high-tech industry, an export-based economy, and significant numbers of Hispanics (called Latinos in California). The latter point is crucial, because Bush received roughly half of the Hispanic vote in Texas when he was reelected last year. Reagan and Deukmejian obtained 40 percent or more of a much smaller Latino vote, as well as a majority of Asians. A repeat of Lungren’s showing among Latinos in 2000 would translate into a million-vote margin for Democrats in California, too much to overcome in other constituencies.
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