The Long Run

ONE little-noted side effect of this unprecedented bull market is the elaborate theories that bearish advisors have developed to explain why their forecasting models have been so wrong. The phenomenon itself is quite remarkable. Up until now in my 17 years of tracking the investment-newsletter industry, I rarely have come across an advisor who is willing to admit he’s been flat-out wrong, much less devote such energy to explaining why he was wrong. That this practice is now commonplace is testimony to the fact that this bull market has risen further and lasted longer than virtually anyone predicted.

Consider the newsletters whose forecasts I reviewed in these pages one year ago. At the time, the best long-term performers were, on balance, quite bearish. Needless to say, they turned out to be quite wrong. What do they have to say for themselves one year later, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average some 1,500 points higher?

MH

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Mark Hulbert

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ONE little-noted side effect of this unprecedented bull market is the elaborate theories that bearish advisors have developed to explain why their forecasting models have been so wrong. The phenomenon itself is quite remarkable. Up until now in my 17 years of tracking the investment-newsletter industry, I rarely have come across an advisor who is willing to admit he’s been flat-out wrong, much less devote such energy to explaining why he was wrong. That this practice is now commonplace is testimony to the fact that this bull market has risen further and lasted longer than virtually anyone predicted.

Consider the newsletters whose forecasts I reviewed in these pages one year ago. At the time, the best long-term performers were, on balance, quite bearish. Needless to say, they turned out to be quite wrong. What do they have to say for themselves one year later, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average some 1,500 points higher?