A Kind of Dynamite

IN 2004, George W. Bush pulled off something of a miracle in Ohio. It wasn’t just that he won the state, which sealed his victory over John Kerry. It was that he won with 16 percent of the black vote. For a Republican, that’s huge. For a Democrat, Kerry’s 84 percent was an embarrassment.

There’s no doubt that Ohio will be a key state in this year’s general election, too; no Republican has been elected president without it. But don’t look for John Mc Cain to replicate Bush’s 16 percent landslide. For one thing, there will be no amendment to ban gay marriage-a measure that won heavy black support and more black votes for Bush-on the ballot. For another thing, it’s looking more and more like Barack Obama will be on the ballot. That probably means Mc Cain will be lucky to get 8 percent of the black vote in Ohio, and he might get even less. And that means Ohio will be even more in play than in the past.

About the Author

Byron York

Byron York is a former White House correspondent for National Review.

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IN 2004, George W. Bush pulled off something of a miracle in Ohio. It wasn’t just that he won the state, which sealed his victory over John Kerry. It was that he won with 16 percent of the black vote. For a Republican, that’s huge. For a Democrat, Kerry’s 84 percent was an embarrassment.

There’s no doubt that Ohio will be a key state in this year’s general election, too; no Republican has been elected president without it. But don’t look for John Mc Cain to replicate Bush’s 16 percent landslide. For one thing, there will be no amendment to ban gay marriage-a measure that won heavy black support and more black votes for Bush-on the ballot. For another thing, it’s looking more and more like Barack Obama will be on the ballot. That probably means Mc Cain will be lucky to get 8 percent of the black vote in Ohio, and he might get even less. And that means Ohio will be even more in play than in the past.