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WHAT’S the difference between “most likely” and “probably”? It may not seem like much, but in the precisely expressed National Intelligence Estimate—an occasional summary of the work of U.S. intelligence agencies— it can mean a lot. In 1999, the estimate said that the U.S. would “most likely” face a missile threat from North Korea, would “probably” face one from Iran, and would “possibly” face one from Iraq, all in the next 15 years. In March, CIA official Robert Walpole told Congress that Iran had caught up to North Korea and joined it in the “most likely” category—a quantum jump in Iran’s potential threat to the U.S.

Walpole wouldn’t say in his open testimony what accounted for Iran’s overachieving, but it isn’t particularly hard to guess one reason. The Iranian missile program might as well be stamped “From Russia, with love.” A week after Walpole’s testimony, CIA director George Tenet told Congress that Russia is the “first choice” of rogue states “seeking the most advanced technology and training.” According to Tenet, “Russia continues to supply significant assistance on nearly all aspects of Tehran’s nuclear program. It is also providing Iran assistance on long-range ballistic-missile programs.”

About the Author

Rich Lowry

Rich Lowry is the editor in chief of National Review.

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WHAT’S the difference between “most likely” and “probably”? It may not seem like much, but in the precisely expressed National Intelligence Estimate—an occasional summary of the work of U.S. intelligence agencies— it can mean a lot. In 1999, the estimate said that the U.S. would “most likely” face a missile threat from North Korea, would “probably” face one from Iran, and would “possibly” face one from Iraq, all in the next 15 years. In March, CIA official Robert Walpole told Congress that Iran had caught up to North Korea and joined it in the “most likely” category—a quantum jump in Iran’s potential threat to the U.S.

Walpole wouldn’t say in his open testimony what accounted for Iran’s overachieving, but it isn’t particularly hard to guess one reason. The Iranian missile program might as well be stamped “From Russia, with love.” A week after Walpole’s testimony, CIA director George Tenet told Congress that Russia is the “first choice” of rogue states “seeking the most advanced technology and training.” According to Tenet, “Russia continues to supply significant assistance on nearly all aspects of Tehran’s nuclear program. It is also providing Iran assistance on long-range ballistic-missile programs.”