CAN KEMP DO IT?

To the casual observer, Vice President George Bush is still “the man to beat” for the GOP nomination, although Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole is doing well in the public-opinion polls. Representative Jack Kemp, my personal friend and personal choice, is said to be floundering in third place, barely into double digits in the polls and running in the red financially. Some commentators are already relegating him to the “second tier,” suggesting his chances are no more realistic than those of Paul Laxalt, Pat Robertson, Pete du Pont, Alexander Haig, or Howard Baker. So much for the casual observer.

In presidential politics, most Americans spend no time at all contemplating a distant horse race. At this stage of the 1988 presidential season, it wouldn’t be surprising to find that three-quarters or more of the potential national electorate have not even peeked at what’s going on. When asked by a national pollster whom they favor at the moment, these voters will draw almost entirely upon past national campaigns in stating a preference. This is why it was never conceivable that anybody but Bush and Dole —the only two who had already run for national office —would score above the teens in national polls until after the first 1988 contests: Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire.

JW

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Jude Wanniski

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Presidential Election

To the casual observer, Vice President George Bush is still “the man to beat” for the GOP nomination, although Senate Minority Leader Bob Dole is doing well in the public-opinion polls. Representative Jack Kemp, my personal friend and personal choice, is said to be floundering in third place, barely into double digits in the polls and running in the red financially. Some commentators are already relegating him to the “second tier,” suggesting his chances are no more realistic than those of Paul Laxalt, Pat Robertson, Pete du Pont, Alexander Haig, or Howard Baker. So much for the casual observer.

In presidential politics, most Americans spend no time at all contemplating a distant horse race. At this stage of the 1988 presidential season, it wouldn’t be surprising to find that three-quarters or more of the potential national electorate have not even peeked at what’s going on. When asked by a national pollster whom they favor at the moment, these voters will draw almost entirely upon past national campaigns in stating a preference. This is why it was never conceivable that anybody but Bush and Dole —the only two who had already run for national office —would score above the teens in national polls until after the first 1988 contests: Michigan, Iowa, New Hampshire.