■ Good news, bad news as George Bush’s campaign team comes up to the Houston Convention: rumors about Dan Quayle and James Baker had pushed the presidential-preference polls out of top headlines. . . . Quayle comments tended to divide on intraparty lines. Republican pro-choicer Ann Stone said: “It may be the thing for [Quayle] to do, to go to the President and offer to step down, because I don’t think you’re going to get George Bush to ask him.” Conservative Richard Viguerie counters: “People are not angry at Dan Quayle. They’re angry at George Bush.” . . . Campaign chiefs waited till last minute to invite Jack Kemp and William Bennett to Houston, but Pat Buchanan was going to be there regardless. A full-page ad in Human Events, taken out by “Buchanan for President, Convention Planning,” invites conservatives to join Buchanan as, “following in the tradition of Senator Barry Goldwater and President Ronald Reagan,” he promotes “traditional, conservative ideals.” Latest reports are that Buchanan will have a formal role.
■ Newsweek/Gallup poll showed Bush going from a narrow lead pre—Democratic Convention—32 to Bill Clinton’s 31 and Ross Perot’s 28—to a 22- point deficit post-Convention—37, versus 59 for Clinton. Latest Gallup shows slight narrowing: Bush 37, Clinton 55. . . . How do these stack up against past years’ polls? In 1988, Michael Dukakis was leading Bush 55 to 38 following Democratic Convention. His lead had slipped to 49 to 42 before the GOP convention; after it, positions were reversed: Bush 48, Dukakis 44. Final vote: Bush 54, Dukakis 46. . . . In 1984, Walter Mondale entered his convention trailing Ronald Reagan 37 to 56; he left it leading 48 to 46. By September, Mondale lead had widened, to 55 to 40. Then came the second debate. Final vote: Reagan 58, Mondale 41. . . . In 1980, early polls had Reagan with 39, to Jimmy Carter’s 31 and John Anderson’s 21. Following Conventions, Carter pulled nearly even, with 38 to Reagan’s 39 and Anderson’s 14. Final vote: Reagan 51, Carter 41, Anderson 7. . . . In 1976, Carter led Gerald Ford 62 to 29 following Democratic Convention; his lead later shrank to 49 to 39. Then Ford gave away Poland. Final vote: Carter 51, Ford 48.
Comments