Once More, with Feeling

AN ominous phrase made its debut on July 25: “the Bush economy.” Asked to assess the administration so far, Senate majority leader Tom Daschle replied, “I would say that the most troubling aspect of the Bush presidency is the Bush economy. The Bush economy is continuing to worsen, and that’s troubling to me.” Six months into Bush’s term, Daschle was serving notice that the Democrats are going to hold him responsible for the economy. The senator’s timing was opportune: The same week, it was reported that the second quarter of the year saw the slowest growth since 1993. The private sector actually shrank—for the first time since the 1990-91 recession.

Administration officials profess not to be worried. They’re leaning on the blue-chip forecasters’ consensus that the economy will recover to 3 percent growth next year. It’s the same stand-pat, recovery-is-right-around-the-corner rhetoric that officials in the first Bush administration used ten years ago. As it happens, the stand-patters were right: The trough of the recession had already passed by the time people were trying to figure out what to do about it. The economy did recover by itself. But none of that mattered politically. Bush was perceived to be doing nothing about a lousy economy, and voters punished him for it in 1992. Will George W. Bush make the same mistake?

About the Author

Ramesh Ponnuru

Ramesh Ponnuru is the editor of National Review, a columnist for the Washington Post, and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

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AN ominous phrase made its debut on July 25: “the Bush economy.” Asked to assess the administration so far, Senate majority leader Tom Daschle replied, “I would say that the most troubling aspect of the Bush presidency is the Bush economy. The Bush economy is continuing to worsen, and that’s troubling to me.” Six months into Bush’s term, Daschle was serving notice that the Democrats are going to hold him responsible for the economy. The senator’s timing was opportune: The same week, it was reported that the second quarter of the year saw the slowest growth since 1993. The private sector actually shrank—for the first time since the 1990-91 recession.

Administration officials profess not to be worried. They’re leaning on the blue-chip forecasters’ consensus that the economy will recover to 3 percent growth next year. It’s the same stand-pat, recovery-is-right-around-the-corner rhetoric that officials in the first Bush administration used ten years ago. As it happens, the stand-patters were right: The trough of the recession had already passed by the time people were trying to figure out what to do about it. The economy did recover by itself. But none of that mattered politically. Bush was perceived to be doing nothing about a lousy economy, and voters punished him for it in 1992. Will George W. Bush make the same mistake?