African Affairs

The fourth war—I think it is the fourth—currently to sputter on in Africa is moving from phase one, when it will all be over by next Monday week, to phase two, when it is taking longer than expected and needs more men and equipment, but will be over by the end of the year. The other wars are well into phase three: that in Sudan has been going on for ten years, that in the Congo, on and off, for six, that between Kenya and Somalia for a mere three. None of them looks in the least like coming to an end.

Will war in Biafra go the same way? Only idiots prophesy in print. Perhaps it really will be over by the end of the year. General Gowon says so, and so far his federal forces are getting the best of it, as they should; they have far more trained men, better fighting men, more equipment (despite that lone Biafran B-26 bomber), greater resources. Biafra’s borders enclose about one-eighth of the whole area of Nigeria, and about one-quarter of the population, mostly belonging to the thrusting, up-and-coming, clannish Ibo people. Biafra also has most of the oil. Not all, however; and here is one of General Gowon’s rubs. Across the Niger River, Biafra’s western border, lies the Midwest Region—Nigeria is, or was, divided into four Regions—where oil is also drilled. The pipelines which convey this oil to the port of Bonny, now reported captured by the federal navy (all three ships), flow through Biafran territory. So if the federal forces were to enforce an effective blockade, the Midwest Region as well as the enemy would be deprived of oil revenues.

EH

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Elspeth Huxley

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The fourth war—I think it is the fourth—currently to sputter on in Africa is moving from phase one, when it will all be over by next Monday week, to phase two, when it is taking longer than expected and needs more men and equipment, but will be over by the end of the year. The other wars are well into phase three: that in Sudan has been going on for ten years, that in the Congo, on and off, for six, that between Kenya and Somalia for a mere three. None of them looks in the least like coming to an end.

Will war in Biafra go the same way? Only idiots prophesy in print. Perhaps it really will be over by the end of the year. General Gowon says so, and so far his federal forces are getting the best of it, as they should; they have far more trained men, better fighting men, more equipment (despite that lone Biafran B-26 bomber), greater resources. Biafra’s borders enclose about one-eighth of the whole area of Nigeria, and about one-quarter of the population, mostly belonging to the thrusting, up-and-coming, clannish Ibo people. Biafra also has most of the oil. Not all, however; and here is one of General Gowon’s rubs. Across the Niger River, Biafra’s western border, lies the Midwest Region—Nigeria is, or was, divided into four Regions—where oil is also drilled. The pipelines which convey this oil to the port of Bonny, now reported captured by the federal navy (all three ships), flow through Biafran territory. So if the federal forces were to enforce an effective blockade, the Midwest Region as well as the enemy would be deprived of oil revenues.