Will the growing conservative tide translate into Republican votes? Yes, say the pundits. Kevin Phillips and Evans-Novak keep upping the number of House and Senate seats the GOP will win come November. A Christian Science Monitor report says Republicans could gain up to thirty House seats. . . . Latest Harris shows Democrats still strong in South but Republicans leading them 51 to 44 in Senate races, 51 to 42 in gubernatorial races outside of the South. . . . And new record lows are recorded every week in Carter’s popularity dive, down forty points from December to 21 per cent early August, lower than Harry Truman’s 23 in November 1951, Richard Nixon’s 24 in August 1974. . . . An interesting mid-July poll in Alabama—about the time of the GOP Convention—shows a break in Carter support in the South. It has Reagan leading him 56 to 32 there.
In all the brouhaha about replacing Carter with some one else—almost anyone else—the pollsters were busy: what they came up with was discouraging for Democrats. A Gallup poll showed Muskie trailing Reagan 45 to 31 (Anderson 16); Kennedy 48 to 27 (Anderson 18); Mondale 47 to 27 (Anderson 18). . . .Incidentally, in eight Gallup samplings from mid-March to mid-July, Anderson has barely moved: he’s never gotten less than 18 per cent, never more than 22 per cent. . . . Tip O’Neill, who should know better, is warning that “John Birchers control” the Republican Party. There are,” he told the House the other day, “more of them on the floor today than in any of the years I’ve been in the House.” And he named two: Rep. Robert Bauman (R., Md.) who isn’t and never has been a Bircher; and Rep. John Rousselot (R., Calif.), who was but re-signed 18 months ago. Actually, as Human Events points out, there is a Bircher in the House: Rep. Larry McDonald, Georgia Democrat. … In general, voters think Reagan was right not to take Gerald Ford. Harris says they feel 66 to 30 per cent that Ford’s demands on Reagan were “unreasonable.”. . . Former Sen. Margaret Chase Smith is also mighty happy Reagan chose George Bush over Ford. “That combination would not have lasted one week into the campaign,” she says. “It would probably have pulled the party down to defeat.”
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