Is tax reform dead? Yes, conclude public-opinion polls that find (ABC News) only 26 per cent now in favor of it. NBC News poll shows people more interested in toxic-waste disposal, cutting federal deficit, and reducing unemployment than in tax reform. . . . But in House, Dan Rostenkowski, chairman of Ways and Means, says reform is still on track, but bill that will emerge won’t look much like Reagan proposal. . . . Senate Finance Committee chairman Robert Pack- wood is less confident, predicts if there is a reform bill it won’t pass till next spring or summer. . . . Sen. David Durenberger (R., Minn.) has proposed compromise measure to limit state- and local-tax deductibility to the amount exceeding 1 per cent of a taxpayer’s adjusted gross income. … In George Will’s opinion, Reagan’s proposal was a “plan for replacing today’s rococo tax code with one that is merely baroque.”
It’s a long way to starting gate but early polls show George Bush way ahead with rank-and-file Republicans, Jack Kemp ahead with conservative activists in presidential stakes. Some figures: Gallup (June): Bush 53 per cent, Baker (Howard) 22, Dole 18, Kemp 10; Field poll (California, May): Bush 39, Dole 14, Baker 11, Kemp 9. But at Conservative Political Action Conference (March), it was Kemp 39, Bush 35, and at conference of College Republicans (May), Kemp 58, Bush 22. … In Christian Science Monitor Op-Ed piece, Kevin Phillips says Bush’s best chance is if he goes into the 1988 campaign as President (i.e., Reagan has resigned, or is sidelined by illness). Phillips points out last sitting Vice President to be elected President was Martin Van Buren in 1836. Phillips feels Dole could be hot contender if he continues to nibble away at centrist Republicans who tend to support Howard Baker. … To Evans & Novak, Dole is clearly “the Senate’s most interesting—if not yet provably most powerful—leader since Lyndon Johnson.” . . . And from an unexpected source—Robert Strauss, that canny Texas Democrat—comes a major kudo for Kemp, who served on Kissinger Commission with Strauss. “[Kemp] was extremely well prepared when he came to our meetings. He showed a willingness to listen to reasoned arguments on every issue. He impressed us all.”
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