Letter from Washington

Two things are certain about the fight coming up this fall between the Administration and Congress over money for the Nicaraguan Contras: It will be sharp and short. In previous years, Congress—especially the House —put off voting on the controversial issue until the previous aid package was about to run dry. This time, however, Congress will not be able to dither. The Administration has proposed a swap with the Sandinista regime: In the next two months, the Sandinistas would impose a ceasefire, agree to give up Soviet-bloc aid, and make democratic reforms; in return, the U.S. would end Contra support. If the Sandinistas refuse, as many observers believe they will, the White House will then ask Congress for $150 million on September 30, under rules of expedited procedure that would force Congress to vote without delay. Insiders expect a 51 to 49 vote, but no one knows whether for or against.

Many House Democrats dismiss the White House peace plan as a hoax and are confident they can defeat the President. Yet some congressional leaders, including House Speaker Jim Wright, support the peace plan because they know that if it fails and if Contra aid is then voted down, Congress will have no Central American policy—a default that would reflect miserably on the Democrats. The specter of such irresponsibility, in turn, might become Congress’s most compelling reason for extending aid. Got it? All of which inclines old political hands here to believe that, the Iran-Contra affair notwithstanding, Contra aid will squeak through by a hair.

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Presidential Election

Ronald Reagan

Two things are certain about the fight coming up this fall between the Administration and Congress over money for the Nicaraguan Contras: It will be sharp and short. In previous years, Congress—especially the House —put off voting on the controversial issue until the previous aid package was about to run dry. This time, however, Congress will not be able to dither. The Administration has proposed a swap with the Sandinista regime: In the next two months, the Sandinistas would impose a ceasefire, agree to give up Soviet-bloc aid, and make democratic reforms; in return, the U.S. would end Contra support. If the Sandinistas refuse, as many observers believe they will, the White House will then ask Congress for $150 million on September 30, under rules of expedited procedure that would force Congress to vote without delay. Insiders expect a 51 to 49 vote, but no one knows whether for or against.

Many House Democrats dismiss the White House peace plan as a hoax and are confident they can defeat the President. Yet some congressional leaders, including House Speaker Jim Wright, support the peace plan because they know that if it fails and if Contra aid is then voted down, Congress will have no Central American policy—a default that would reflect miserably on the Democrats. The specter of such irresponsibility, in turn, might become Congress’s most compelling reason for extending aid. Got it? All of which inclines old political hands here to believe that, the Iran-Contra affair notwithstanding, Contra aid will squeak through by a hair.