EVER since Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination, John McCain has been within five points of him in a weighted average of national polls; lately, he has been within four. Most Republican strategists thought that Obama would be much farther ahead. Polls show that the public would much rather elect a Democratic president than another Republican one. But voters have enough respect for McCain and enough doubts about Obama to make this race competitive.
Nonetheless, McCain is behind, and it is going to take a smart and well-executed campaign to change that. The Iraq War is unpopular, and Americans want to end it as soon as we reasonably can. Most Americans are dissatisfied with the economy, upset in particular by the rising price of necessities. The number of people who think the country is on the right track is in the teens. President Bush and his party have been deeply unpopular for several years. Liberals are excited and organized in a way that conservatives aren’t.






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