For the Record

Whatcha know. Guess who’s becoming everyone’s political pin-up boy—Sen. Robert Dole of the “revenue enhancement” plan, that’s who. The ever liberal Boston Globe commended “Pitchfork Bob Dole, the latter-day populist from Kansas” for lifting the “fairness issue” from the Democrats. . . . Kevin Phillips claims that Dole’s “leadership” (in working out the voting-rights and tax-increase compromises) “moves him right up in the 1984 presidential sweepstakes.” Phillips says he’s seen more stories on Dole as a national political figure since May than on leading contenders Bush, Kemp, and Baker (Howard)—leading, that is, if Ronald Reagan were to pull out. . . . Charles Manatt, Democratic National Chairman, warns Democrats not to focus campaigns on Reagan. “He’s the boy next door,” says Manatt. “His personality is such that [he has to be] treated very gingerly.” . . . Democratic pollster Peter Hart counsels Democratic candidates to tell constituents that what they want to do is “make adjustments” in Reagan’s program, not scuttle it. . . . That’s reading the polls. A recent Gallup shows many Americans believing in the Reagan package. Will it help your personal finances, and when? 29 per cent replied now; 36 per cent a year from now; 43 per cent in the long run. . . . Meanwhile, according to Gallup, Harris, Wirthlin, NBC/AP, Time/ Yankelovich, Reagan has definitely bottomed out, is moving up slowly; in short is in stronger position than Jimmy Carter after his 18-months-in-office poll dive.

New insight on House elections this November. Democratic analyst Alan Baron, commenting that the Watergate election spending reforms have meant, in practice, that lots more is spent on elections, asks how important the money really is. In the 1982 races, says Baron, Republican House candidates will spend an average of $300,000, to $180,- 000 for the Democrats. If GOP loses only twenty seats in the traditional losing off-year it will mean that money counts; if Dems win more than thirty, money won’t have been determining factor. . . . On individual races, Kevin Phillips now calls Lew Lehrman (gubernatorial, N.Y.) “the overwhelming favorite for GOP nomination as primary rival Paul Curran’s campaign hemorrhages credibility.” … In Massachusetts, Boston Globe columnist Peter Lucas finds challenger Ray Shamie running far ahead of Teddy Kennedy in Kennedy’s traditional home base in Irish South Boston—a heartening finding for Shamie camp. . . . Politics livening up in Vermont with candidacy of John McCIaughry, who resigned as White House aide to run against liberal Republican Sen. Robert Stafford. McCIaughry charges Stafford scored eight points higher than the average Democrat in support of Jimmy Carter programs. … In Ohio, it’s going to be Left-Right fight with conservative Rep. Clarence Brown (ADA 0, ACA 83) taking on liberal Democrat Richard Celeste in gubernatorial race.

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Whatcha know. Guess who’s becoming everyone’s political pin-up boy—Sen. Robert Dole of the “revenue enhancement” plan, that’s who. The ever liberal Boston Globe commended “Pitchfork Bob Dole, the latter-day populist from Kansas” for lifting the “fairness issue” from the Democrats. . . . Kevin Phillips claims that Dole’s “leadership” (in working out the voting-rights and tax-increase compromises) “moves him right up in the 1984 presidential sweepstakes.” Phillips says he’s seen more stories on Dole as a national political figure since May than on leading contenders Bush, Kemp, and Baker (Howard)—leading, that is, if Ronald Reagan were to pull out. . . . Charles Manatt, Democratic National Chairman, warns Democrats not to focus campaigns on Reagan. “He’s the boy next door,” says Manatt. “His personality is such that [he has to be] treated very gingerly.” . . . Democratic pollster Peter Hart counsels Democratic candidates to tell constituents that what they want to do is “make adjustments” in Reagan’s program, not scuttle it. . . . That’s reading the polls. A recent Gallup shows many Americans believing in the Reagan package. Will it help your personal finances, and when? 29 per cent replied now; 36 per cent a year from now; 43 per cent in the long run. . . . Meanwhile, according to Gallup, Harris, Wirthlin, NBC/AP, Time/ Yankelovich, Reagan has definitely bottomed out, is moving up slowly; in short is in stronger position than Jimmy Carter after his 18-months-in-office poll dive.

New insight on House elections this November. Democratic analyst Alan Baron, commenting that the Watergate election spending reforms have meant, in practice, that lots more is spent on elections, asks how important the money really is. In the 1982 races, says Baron, Republican House candidates will spend an average of $300,000, to $180,- 000 for the Democrats. If GOP loses only twenty seats in the traditional losing off-year it will mean that money counts; if Dems win more than thirty, money won’t have been determining factor. . . . On individual races, Kevin Phillips now calls Lew Lehrman (gubernatorial, N.Y.) “the overwhelming favorite for GOP nomination as primary rival Paul Curran’s campaign hemorrhages credibility.” … In Massachusetts, Boston Globe columnist Peter Lucas finds challenger Ray Shamie running far ahead of Teddy Kennedy in Kennedy’s traditional home base in Irish South Boston—a heartening finding for Shamie camp. . . . Politics livening up in Vermont with candidacy of John McCIaughry, who resigned as White House aide to run against liberal Republican Sen. Robert Stafford. McCIaughry charges Stafford scored eight points higher than the average Democrat in support of Jimmy Carter programs. … In Ohio, it’s going to be Left-Right fight with conservative Rep. Clarence Brown (ADA 0, ACA 83) taking on liberal Democrat Richard Celeste in gubernatorial race.