The Polish Conundrum

The conundrum that currently baffles the Washington intelligence community is this: Why have the Soviets not invaded Poland? Not to have done so contradicts the history, the character, and the strategic impulse of the USSR. In the past, when the Russians have failed to resolve a problem by political means, they have ineluctably gone the military route. Czechoslovakia is the paradigm. The scenario in Poland has been played out almost as a replica of Czechoslovakia, with points of correspondence so exactly matching as to have led CIA Sovietologists and National Security Council analysts to expect the Soviets to march into Poland before the Polish Communist Party Congress, as they did two days before the Party Congress in Czechoslovakia, August 20, 1968.

The non-intervention is made the more inscrutable because Poland is of such capital national security importance to the USSR, where national security is priority number one. The Russians recognize that if the Poles succeed in this bid for freedom, a chain reaction will almost certainly occur.

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The conundrum that currently baffles the Washington intelligence community is this: Why have the Soviets not invaded Poland? Not to have done so contradicts the history, the character, and the strategic impulse of the USSR. In the past, when the Russians have failed to resolve a problem by political means, they have ineluctably gone the military route. Czechoslovakia is the paradigm. The scenario in Poland has been played out almost as a replica of Czechoslovakia, with points of correspondence so exactly matching as to have led CIA Sovietologists and National Security Council analysts to expect the Soviets to march into Poland before the Polish Communist Party Congress, as they did two days before the Party Congress in Czechoslovakia, August 20, 1968.

The non-intervention is made the more inscrutable because Poland is of such capital national security importance to the USSR, where national security is priority number one. The Russians recognize that if the Poles succeed in this bid for freedom, a chain reaction will almost certainly occur.