AMERICAN elections tend to give voters mere approximations of what they want. When the public chooses between two candidates, one will win, but generally by being slightly better than the other rather than embodying the will of the people. And one will lose, but usually by being slightly less appealing than the other rather than completely failing to engage voters’ interests and imaginations. The general mood of the electorate, the peculiar features of the candidates, and the vicissitudes of the moment all play their parts in shaping voters’choices.
Elections therefore offer politicians and activists some crucial information, but not precise data for future use. The exit polls of the last election, with their detailed demographic breakdowns, might help us design the perfect candidate, platform, and message for winning the last election, but not the next one.





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