Sarah Resartus

THESE are the things that can be said, with some degree of certainty, about the candidacy of Sarah Palin for vice president of the United States. First, that picking her as his running mate was the only thing John McCain did all year that shifted, however temporarily, an unfavorable electoral landscape to his favor. Second, that she gave one of the most successful debut speeches of any candidate for national office in American history, followed by one of the most disastrous prime-time interviews. Third, that the Gibson/Couric debacles, the broader hostility to her candidacy among the chattering classes, and the style in which she campaigned for McCain combined to gradually push her unfavorable numbers up toward levels that took Hillary Clinton and Newt Gingrich years to achieve. Fourth, that she leaves the campaign trail with the affection-even adoration-of many on the right, but lacking the crossover appeal she’ll need if she aspires to run for national office again.

Those are the knowns; the list of unknowns is considerably longer. Start with the big question: Did she ultimately help McCain or hurt him? Crunch one set of numbers-her high unfavorables, the polls showing a majority of Americans doubting her readiness to assume the presidency—and it seems that she almost certainly hurt him. But the majority of voters who cited Palin as a major factor in their decision voted for McCain, according to the exit polls, suggesting that she may have turned out more Mac-skeptic Republicans than she turned off independents.

About the Author

Ross Douthat

Ross Douthat is a former National Review contributing editor.

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THESE are the things that can be said, with some degree of certainty, about the candidacy of Sarah Palin for vice president of the United States. First, that picking her as his running mate was the only thing John McCain did all year that shifted, however temporarily, an unfavorable electoral landscape to his favor. Second, that she gave one of the most successful debut speeches of any candidate for national office in American history, followed by one of the most disastrous prime-time interviews. Third, that the Gibson/Couric debacles, the broader hostility to her candidacy among the chattering classes, and the style in which she campaigned for McCain combined to gradually push her unfavorable numbers up toward levels that took Hillary Clinton and Newt Gingrich years to achieve. Fourth, that she leaves the campaign trail with the affection-even adoration-of many on the right, but lacking the crossover appeal she’ll need if she aspires to run for national office again.

Those are the knowns; the list of unknowns is considerably longer. Start with the big question: Did she ultimately help McCain or hurt him? Crunch one set of numbers-her high unfavorables, the polls showing a majority of Americans doubting her readiness to assume the presidency—and it seems that she almost certainly hurt him. But the majority of voters who cited Palin as a major factor in their decision voted for McCain, according to the exit polls, suggesting that she may have turned out more Mac-skeptic Republicans than she turned off independents.