The Four Horsemen of Barack Obama

ACCORDING to the University of Iowa’s presidential-futures market, John McCain’s prospects peaked on March 22, 2008. By that day it was clear he’d be the nominee, though he had not yet been officially nominated. The market implied that his odds of winning the White House were 55 percent.

But then financial markets began their historic fall, which accelerated as the campaign wore on. When McCain’s probability of winning was at its peak, the S&P 500 index stood at 1,329.54. By November 5, it had dropped 28.3 percent, to 952.77. The question: Did the tanking economy help Obama; did the economy tank as a reaction to the fact that Obama might become president; neither; or both?

About the Author

Kevin A. Hassett

Kevin A. Hassett was the senior adviser to National Review’s Capital Matters and was the Brent R. Nicklas Distinguished Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution.

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ACCORDING to the University of Iowa’s presidential-futures market, John McCain’s prospects peaked on March 22, 2008. By that day it was clear he’d be the nominee, though he had not yet been officially nominated. The market implied that his odds of winning the White House were 55 percent.

But then financial markets began their historic fall, which accelerated as the campaign wore on. When McCain’s probability of winning was at its peak, the S&P 500 index stood at 1,329.54. By November 5, it had dropped 28.3 percent, to 952.77. The question: Did the tanking economy help Obama; did the economy tank as a reaction to the fact that Obama might become president; neither; or both?

About the Author

Kevin A. Hassett

Kevin A. Hassett was the senior adviser to National Review’s Capital Matters and was the Brent R. Nicklas Distinguished Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution.