Following the Returns

IN recent years NATIONAL REVIEW has pioneered two of the most fruitful theories of electoral behavior: namely, those based upon the “investor class” and the “impact of immigration.” The investor class theory holds that since most Americans now own shares in American industry, they are less amenable to anticorporate rhetoric and more favorable to such policies as the reform of Social Security. If true, this theory would suggest growing Republican dominance as prosperity pushes more people into the investor class.

The impact-of-immigration theory, by contrast, predicts an increase in Democratic support, because of a growing population among the ethnic groups that tend to vote Democratic. If this remains unchecked, the Democrats will become the natural majority party sometime around 2004.

About the Author

John O’Sullivan

John O’Sullivan is a senior fellow at National Review Institute and a contributing editor of National Review.

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Presidential Election

IN recent years NATIONAL REVIEW has pioneered two of the most fruitful theories of electoral behavior: namely, those based upon the “investor class” and the “impact of immigration.” The investor class theory holds that since most Americans now own shares in American industry, they are less amenable to anticorporate rhetoric and more favorable to such policies as the reform of Social Security. If true, this theory would suggest growing Republican dominance as prosperity pushes more people into the investor class.

The impact-of-immigration theory, by contrast, predicts an increase in Democratic support, because of a growing population among the ethnic groups that tend to vote Democratic. If this remains unchecked, the Democrats will become the natural majority party sometime around 2004.