■ TV stations in New Hampshire and Iowa have started to get complaints that they keep interrupting the Steve Forbes commercials to show programming.
■ All signs are that the obstructionists among President Clinton’s advisors have the upper hand in the internal debate over the budget. The idea is to stonewall the GOP’s huge budget-reconciliation bill, then pick it apart next year, making each element one plank in a scare campaign: the farm bill in the Midwest; the Medicare reforms in Arizona, Florida, and just about everywhere else; etc. (Think of it as their version of the Contract with America.) Republicans, meanwhile, would be denied both any significant legislative accomplishment this year and any chance to rebut Democratic distortions by pointing to the non-apocalyptic reality of their policies. So, it’s imperative that the GOP avoid this gridlock scenario. The chief means of doing so is by holding the outstanding appropriations bills hostage and threatening another government shutdown come December 15. Nervous senators—Bob Dole is calling a second partial shutdown a “mistake”—are beginning to shy away from this approach, chastened by the fallout from the mid-November shutdown. Which obviously could have been handled better (may Newt Gingrich never exit from the front door of a plane again). But, even so, once the November shutdown became focused on a seven-year balanced budget, the White House’s nightly tracking polls crashed and congressional Democrats began to peel off. Clinton has no stomach for doing publicly what he wants in his heart: to keep the red ink flowing. In the coming weeks, then, Republicans must drag him out in the open, be flexible on the spending details (giving a little on Americorps, Medicare, and so on), but refuse to accept “no” for an answer. Actually achieving a balanced budget is indispensable political cover. As in 1990, when the Bush Administration headed for Andrews Air Force base, the Republican future hangs in the balance. Blink—and you’re dead.
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