A contingency may be regarded as serious (a versatile word), in the sense of having important and dangerous effects, without being taken seriously, in the sense of receiving rigorous attention and hard effort. Thus, a householder does not really take the danger of fire seriously if, after installing extinguishers and smoke sensors, he—and I know one such—neglects to check pressure gauges or to replace played-out batteries. In that sense, this country has not been taking war seriously.
Obviously, the analogy between fire and war cannot be pushed too hard. Fires arise mainly from inanimate forces, while war is a work of human agency. Preventing and fighting fires require different sorts of means, but the same sorts of military capabilities are used both in deterring and in fighting wars. Except to arsonists, fire prevention is an unexceptionable good, but being spared from hostilities may exact an enormous and brutal price from a nation. In the case of fires, finally, it is hard to imagine how a horror of their effects could ever induce a householder to neglect the means for coping with them. Yet a twist of that sort appears to have afflicted American military policies in recent years.




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