Capital Scene: Bread & Circuses

WHILE Washington Republicans feel trapped in a demoralizing blizzard of negative poll numbers and public-relations snowdrifts, their party’s beyond-the-BeltWay leaders are basking in the news they heard this month at the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting in San Diego. Despite rainy weather and an unsightly venue (the convention center, where the party will nominate its candidate this summer, disappointingly resembles a huge garage), nothing could dampen the spirits of the 160 party officials who look forward to returning in August and making history in November. A Republican President has not been elected to serve with an incumbent Republican Congress since 1924. Party leaders believe they have the message and the map to make a comparable sweep next fall.

In November, Bill Clinton could win Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., West Virginia, Arkansas (bear with me here), Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii— and still lose the White House. Republican demographer John Morgan rattled off this list to an incredulous audience that begged him to repeat and explain. Morgan, who handled voter analysis for the Reagan White House, flatly stated, “I don’t see how Clinton can mathematically win in a two-way race.”

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Kate O'Beirne

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Presidential Election

WHILE Washington Republicans feel trapped in a demoralizing blizzard of negative poll numbers and public-relations snowdrifts, their party’s beyond-the-BeltWay leaders are basking in the news they heard this month at the Republican National Committee’s winter meeting in San Diego. Despite rainy weather and an unsightly venue (the convention center, where the party will nominate its candidate this summer, disappointingly resembles a huge garage), nothing could dampen the spirits of the 160 party officials who look forward to returning in August and making history in November. A Republican President has not been elected to serve with an incumbent Republican Congress since 1924. Party leaders believe they have the message and the map to make a comparable sweep next fall.

In November, Bill Clinton could win Maine, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland, D.C., West Virginia, Arkansas (bear with me here), Illinois, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Iowa, Missouri, Washington, Oregon, California, and Hawaii— and still lose the White House. Republican demographer John Morgan rattled off this list to an incredulous audience that begged him to repeat and explain. Morgan, who handled voter analysis for the Reagan White House, flatly stated, “I don’t see how Clinton can mathematically win in a two-way race.”