On the Right

New York, Jan. 21—A great deal has been concluded as a result of the figures given out last week that reveal that Ronald Reagan’s popularity with the voters is lower at mid-term than that of any of the past four elected Presidents. The poll shows that Reagan’s 41 per cent low contrasts with John F. Kennedy’s 76 per cent, the historic high. How Mr. Reagan has done is not, of course, exactly the same question as how popular is he. Just as World War II was concluding, the most heroic British figure in modern history was voted out of office. If Winston Churchill can be tossed out by the voters, it should not surprise that one day Mr. Reagan might be tossed out.

But the Gallup poll figures are otherwise interesting. Mr. Kennedy was the most popular President at mid-term. And what happened to him one year later? One year later he calculated that he was so close to the possibility of losing the forthcoming presidential election to Barry Goldwater, that—as his biographers concede —he needed to tie up the support of what might prove to be the swing state. Accordingly, he decided to take a trip to Texas; his last trip. And the whole world is familiar with Harry Truman, who in the spring of 1948 was so unpopular it was generally conceded that Herbert Hoover could have beaten him in the November election: which Harry Truman proceeded to win. The point of the above is simply this, that there is volatility in political popularity, and that to make any final bets on the basis of what Mr. Gallup tells us is, well, not very bright. And of course, utterly uninformative of whether a President deserves to be unpopular, or for that matter, popular.

About the Author

William F. Buckley Jr.

William F. Buckley Jr. founded National Review magazine in 1955.

New York, Jan. 21—A great deal has been concluded as a result of the figures given out last week that reveal that Ronald Reagan’s popularity with the voters is lower at mid-term than that of any of the past four elected Presidents. The poll shows that Reagan’s 41 per cent low contrasts with John F. Kennedy’s 76 per cent, the historic high. How Mr. Reagan has done is not, of course, exactly the same question as how popular is he. Just as World War II was concluding, the most heroic British figure in modern history was voted out of office. If Winston Churchill can be tossed out by the voters, it should not surprise that one day Mr. Reagan might be tossed out.

But the Gallup poll figures are otherwise interesting. Mr. Kennedy was the most popular President at mid-term. And what happened to him one year later? One year later he calculated that he was so close to the possibility of losing the forthcoming presidential election to Barry Goldwater, that—as his biographers concede —he needed to tie up the support of what might prove to be the swing state. Accordingly, he decided to take a trip to Texas; his last trip. And the whole world is familiar with Harry Truman, who in the spring of 1948 was so unpopular it was generally conceded that Herbert Hoover could have beaten him in the November election: which Harry Truman proceeded to win. The point of the above is simply this, that there is volatility in political popularity, and that to make any final bets on the basis of what Mr. Gallup tells us is, well, not very bright. And of course, utterly uninformative of whether a President deserves to be unpopular, or for that matter, popular.