What are all those polls that have Republicans hopping and shouting? George Bush’s supporters released an Arthur Finkelstein poll at the annual meeting of CPAC in Washington, which sampled the memberships of nine conservative groups. Bush led the field as the favorite to succeed Reagan, with 36.3 per cent. Jack Kemp came in second with 16.9 per cent. Bob Dole (7.5 per cent) and Howard Baker (5.5 per cent) led the also-rans. When pollsters restricted potential candidates to these four, Bush jumped to 42 per cent, Kemp to 24.4 per cent. Bush “has established himself as an acceptable candidate to conservatives,” said ACU Chairman David Keene, a Bush aide in 1980, now a consultant to Dole. . . . “Bush doesn’t have a lock on the nomination,” cautioned John Maxwell, head of Kemp’s PAC. Kempites unveiled their own straw poll of CPAC delegates: 151 for Kemp, 25 for Bush. . . . Mervin Field polls in California show Bush and Kemp pulling away from the pack (Bush rose from 39 to 50 per cent between May and December; Kemp rose from 10 to 14 per cent). . . . Kevin Phillips finds Bush profiting from “GOP hierarchicalism,” while “there’s no doubt that Kemp is gaining ground.” Dole, says Phillips, is “ebbing.” . . . Detroit News finds “little visible recruiting” by Dole in Michigan, the earliest caucus state; evangelist Pat Robertson has been “aggressive”; Alexander Haig and Donald Rumsfeld are “obviously testing the waters.” . . . Rumors of a deal: If Baker drops his flagging bid, he can have State or Treasury in a Bush Cabinet.
Blasts from the past: Geraldine Ferraro offered to take the place of Queens (New York City) Borough President Donald Manes, under a cloud for a parking-ticket scandal and a bizarre apparent suicide attempt. Queens pols, worried about the Justice Department’s investigation into her campaign finances, rejected her offer. “It would be a liability,” said one. . . . Henry Kissinger scotched talk that he might run for governor against Mario Cuomo. New York State Republicans felt Kissinger could raise money; Kissinger felt he would lose too much time and money of his own, as well as, in all likelihood, the race. . . . George McGovern is one of the finalists to be president of St. John’s in Annapolis. (One World as a Great Book?)




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