Don’t write off Gary Hart. Despite Hart’s negative ratings, and his drop in the presidential-preference polls from 60 per cent seven months ago to 30 per cent today, he is still politically formidable. With Hart’s fundraising burden temporarily alleviated ($100,000 in hand, $900,000 likely before Super Tuesday), the former Colorado senator’s challenge is to convert substantial grassroots support into an organization. Recall that Hart is today’s Democratic front-runner. What he needs is to place at least third in Iowa and New Hampshire. If he can do that, Super Tuesday may be easier for him to survive than most pundits here currently allow.
Super Tuesday—the Southern regional primary on March 8—will badly split the Democrats. Jackson will do well, better than in 1984, because many runoff primaries that had been designed—as Jackson charged—to dilute the black vote have been eliminated. That siphoning off will leave a still-crowded field of Democratic contenders vying for and splitting the remaining Democratic votes. “Super Tuesday is more likely to have a muddling impact on the race than to produce a frontrunner,” says the editor of a Washington Democratic political newsletter.
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