Abroad

Riyadh Prospect for Arabia Despite the recent attack on the mosque at Mecca, as well as the fabulous wealth of the royal family, Saudi Arabia is not thought by foreign observers here to be in line for a revolution on the Iranian model. There is, to be sure, an outfit in London calling itself the Organization for the Islamic Revolution in the Arabian Peninsula, which broadcasts the same kind of material as was used by the Ayatollah Khomeini. Stories also circulate of anti-royal graffiti which have to be washed off the walls of Jidda; of discontent among the younger, more liberal princes and the rich merchants; and of discontent, too, among the country nomads. But there are two things the royal family is doing to forestall trouble. One is the development of a constitution, or basic system of government, which will shortly be drawn up and promulgated. The second is a call to austerity among the rich Saudis by Crown Prince Fahd. Furthermore, there are distinct differences from Iran. One is that the country is governed not by one autocratic man but by the princely ruling family of Al-Saud consisting of several thousand members, with the king and crown prince as leading members of an oligarchy. The princes, in effect, form a tribe, and it would be very difficult to overthrow a whole tribe. Another difference is that while the Shah of Iran was a secular monarch, the Saudi dynasty are religiously oriented and live, at least on the surface, with self-conscious Koranic austerity. A final difference is that the regime, for all its wealth, is neither high-handed nor arrogant. There is no talk, for example, of Saudi Arabia becoming the protector of the Persian Gulf.

Asmara Twenty Years On The Eritrean struggle for independence from Ethiopia is approaching the twenty-year mark. Fighting between the rebels and the armies of Addis Ababa has been sporadic but bloody during a number of inconclusive campaigns. This spring the Ethiopians, armed with fresh weapons supplied by the Soviet Union, hope to end a challenge that has represented the biggest single drain on their resources and their manpower. The rebels, who have about thirty thousand men continuously under arms, are split into two movements or “fronts,” one of them Marxist but fiercely independent, the other Marxist also and allied to Moscow. As Moscow is also the mainstay, militarily and politically, of the central government in Addis Ababa, the situation is superficially awkward. But poor communications and the nature of the special grievances of the Eritreans prevent the contradiction from assuming much reality. The rebels, however divided, are united in their desire for an autonomous Eritrea, possibly with some ties to Addis Ababa. But Colonel Mengistu, Ethiopia’s current dictator, does not dare undermine the authority of the central government in any respect. Observers believe that the Ethiopians, however well armed, will never achieve a military solution, and that,in the absence of political agreement, the fighting will drag on until one or both sides are exhausted.

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Riyadh Prospect for Arabia Despite the recent attack on the mosque at Mecca, as well as the fabulous wealth of the royal family, Saudi Arabia is not thought by foreign observers here to be in line for a revolution on the Iranian model. There is, to be sure, an outfit in London calling itself the Organization for the Islamic Revolution in the Arabian Peninsula, which broadcasts the same kind of material as was used by the Ayatollah Khomeini. Stories also circulate of anti-royal graffiti which have to be washed off the walls of Jidda; of discontent among the younger, more liberal princes and the rich merchants; and of discontent, too, among the country nomads. But there are two things the royal family is doing to forestall trouble. One is the development of a constitution, or basic system of government, which will shortly be drawn up and promulgated. The second is a call to austerity among the rich Saudis by Crown Prince Fahd. Furthermore, there are distinct differences from Iran. One is that the country is governed not by one autocratic man but by the princely ruling family of Al-Saud consisting of several thousand members, with the king and crown prince as leading members of an oligarchy. The princes, in effect, form a tribe, and it would be very difficult to overthrow a whole tribe. Another difference is that while the Shah of Iran was a secular monarch, the Saudi dynasty are religiously oriented and live, at least on the surface, with self-conscious Koranic austerity. A final difference is that the regime, for all its wealth, is neither high-handed nor arrogant. There is no talk, for example, of Saudi Arabia becoming the protector of the Persian Gulf.

Asmara Twenty Years On The Eritrean struggle for independence from Ethiopia is approaching the twenty-year mark. Fighting between the rebels and the armies of Addis Ababa has been sporadic but bloody during a number of inconclusive campaigns. This spring the Ethiopians, armed with fresh weapons supplied by the Soviet Union, hope to end a challenge that has represented the biggest single drain on their resources and their manpower. The rebels, who have about thirty thousand men continuously under arms, are split into two movements or “fronts,” one of them Marxist but fiercely independent, the other Marxist also and allied to Moscow. As Moscow is also the mainstay, militarily and politically, of the central government in Addis Ababa, the situation is superficially awkward. But poor communications and the nature of the special grievances of the Eritreans prevent the contradiction from assuming much reality. The rebels, however divided, are united in their desire for an autonomous Eritrea, possibly with some ties to Addis Ababa. But Colonel Mengistu, Ethiopia’s current dictator, does not dare undermine the authority of the central government in any respect. Observers believe that the Ethiopians, however well armed, will never achieve a military solution, and that,in the absence of political agreement, the fighting will drag on until one or both sides are exhausted.