Chinese Tremors

A MID China’s “Christmas crackdown” on dissent, two small news items may indicate just how worried about the coming year is the regime in Beijing. First, the prime minister warned workers building the immense Three Gorges dam on the Yangtze River that they must avoid “any carelessness or negligence.” Second, the regime issued an edict declaring that earth- quake forecasts were to be classified top secret.

Trivial as these may appear compared with the brutal sentences that sent four top democracy leaders—Xu Wenli, Qin Yongmin, Wang Youcai, and Zhang Shanguang—to the Gulag, the two developments betray the fear now infecting China’s rulers. The high dam could well turn into a Chinese Chernobyl (and who familiar with quality control in Communist states doubts that it could?). It is the pet project of former prime minister Li Peng and reeks of the triumphalism characteristic of the Soviet Union (where Li was trained). Imposed by fiat over wide protest, the dam’s construction is forcing millions of people to relocate. Even if all goes as planned, the waters will flood ancient sites and ravage the ecosystem. Outright failure, though, would cost millions of lives.

AW

About the Author

Arthur Waldron

Mr. Waldron is the Lauder Professor of International Relations in the department of history at the University of Pennsylvania.

A MID China’s “Christmas crackdown” on dissent, two small news items may indicate just how worried about the coming year is the regime in Beijing. First, the prime minister warned workers building the immense Three Gorges dam on the Yangtze River that they must avoid “any carelessness or negligence.” Second, the regime issued an edict declaring that earth- quake forecasts were to be classified top secret.

Trivial as these may appear compared with the brutal sentences that sent four top democracy leaders—Xu Wenli, Qin Yongmin, Wang Youcai, and Zhang Shanguang—to the Gulag, the two developments betray the fear now infecting China’s rulers. The high dam could well turn into a Chinese Chernobyl (and who familiar with quality control in Communist states doubts that it could?). It is the pet project of former prime minister Li Peng and reeks of the triumphalism characteristic of the Soviet Union (where Li was trained). Imposed by fiat over wide protest, the dam’s construction is forcing millions of people to relocate. Even if all goes as planned, the waters will flood ancient sites and ravage the ecosystem. Outright failure, though, would cost millions of lives.