ITis difficult to determine precisely what is new about President Bush’s new strategy toward Iraq. Exhortations about lowering unemployment, sharing oil revenues, and reconciling with the Sunnis are already part of the strategic repertoire of Gen. George W. Casey Jr., who is being replaced as commander of coalition forces in Iraq.
What are the additional American soldiers expected to do? Increasing their numbers is a temporary input. Every surge ebbs. Keeping U.S. forces in very large numbers in Iraq is an approach that probably can’t be sustained for longer than a year. We are simply running out of time in Iraq, because the American public has already seen our soldiers dying for almost four years, without progress. Economic incentives, meanwhile, of the kind that alter people’s perceptions and draw support away from the insurgents, require multiyear persistence. Political reconciliation requires refractory Iraqi politicians to reach reasonable compromise—again, a multiyear task.
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