Battle for the ‘Burbs

IT was only four years ago that conservatives-and a great many liberals-were convinced that the Democratic party was doomed to become a purely regional institution: “a national party no more,” to borrow the title of Georgia Democrat-turned-Bush supporter Zell Miller’s 2003 memoir. Pundits brandished county-by-county maps showing blue enclaves drowning in a sea of red; they talked up the growth of GOP-leaning regions and constituencies and the daunting demographic gaps (God, babies) facing the Democratic party; they murmured in awe about the unbeatable political machine Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman had built. To most observers, the Republicans looked like America’s natural majority, while the Democrats looked like a liberal rump, confined to the coasts and big cities, and permanently alienated from the American heartland.

Now the situation is reversed. Now it’s the Democrats who expect to control the presidency and both houses of Congress come January, and perhaps for years to come. Since 2004 the GOP has lost ground on nearly every demographic and geographic front-white collar and blue collar, Hispanic and redneck, Catholic and evangelical. The party has been routed in the Northeast, taken heavy losses in the Midwest and Mountain West, and even tasted defeat deep in the South.

About the Author

Ross Douthat

Ross Douthat is a former National Review contributing editor.

About the Author

Reihan Salam

Reihan Salam is president of the Manhattan Institute and a contributing editor of National Review.

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IT was only four years ago that conservatives-and a great many liberals-were convinced that the Democratic party was doomed to become a purely regional institution: “a national party no more,” to borrow the title of Georgia Democrat-turned-Bush supporter Zell Miller’s 2003 memoir. Pundits brandished county-by-county maps showing blue enclaves drowning in a sea of red; they talked up the growth of GOP-leaning regions and constituencies and the daunting demographic gaps (God, babies) facing the Democratic party; they murmured in awe about the unbeatable political machine Karl Rove and Ken Mehlman had built. To most observers, the Republicans looked like America’s natural majority, while the Democrats looked like a liberal rump, confined to the coasts and big cities, and permanently alienated from the American heartland.

Now the situation is reversed. Now it’s the Democrats who expect to control the presidency and both houses of Congress come January, and perhaps for years to come. Since 2004 the GOP has lost ground on nearly every demographic and geographic front-white collar and blue collar, Hispanic and redneck, Catholic and evangelical. The party has been routed in the Northeast, taken heavy losses in the Midwest and Mountain West, and even tasted defeat deep in the South.