Something Old and Something New

The only political analyst I know of who predicted that Walter Mondale’s fortunes would reach the low estate they reached on March 10 in Plains, Georgia, was Helen Miller, who was national review’s switchboard operator. She bet me $5, back in January, that the winner of the Democratic nomination would be Gary Hart; what’s more, she picked Hart to win the New Hampshire primary. “When times are bad,” she explained her defiance of all the experts, “people want a little change in their lives.”

The experts were wrong, she was right. In hindsight, the spitball question, the one that slipped through the blind spot in Mondale’s zone, was posed by Hart in the Des Moines debate on February 11. On what, if anything, he asked the front-runner, have you ever disagreed with organized labor? “I’m a candidate they can trust, not one they can run,” was all Mondale could reply. A few days later, seemingly after arduous thought, he came up with a pair of programs—the Clinch River breeder, Simpson-Mazzoli—that labor supported and he opposed. Too late. His slowness didn’t hurt him in Iowa, a caucus state where a strong union apparat marched out the troops. But in New Hampshire, thin on unions and full of cussedness, the image of Mondale as goods bought and paid for looked less attractive; and although times haven’t been particularly bad in the Granite State, the voters there always like a little change in their lives.

About the Author

Richard Brookhiser

Historian Richard Brookhiser is a senior editor of National Review and a senior fellow at the National Review Institute.

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The only political analyst I know of who predicted that Walter Mondale’s fortunes would reach the low estate they reached on March 10 in Plains, Georgia, was Helen Miller, who was national review’s switchboard operator. She bet me $5, back in January, that the winner of the Democratic nomination would be Gary Hart; what’s more, she picked Hart to win the New Hampshire primary. “When times are bad,” she explained her defiance of all the experts, “people want a little change in their lives.”

The experts were wrong, she was right. In hindsight, the spitball question, the one that slipped through the blind spot in Mondale’s zone, was posed by Hart in the Des Moines debate on February 11. On what, if anything, he asked the front-runner, have you ever disagreed with organized labor? “I’m a candidate they can trust, not one they can run,” was all Mondale could reply. A few days later, seemingly after arduous thought, he came up with a pair of programs—the Clinch River breeder, Simpson-Mazzoli—that labor supported and he opposed. Too late. His slowness didn’t hurt him in Iowa, a caucus state where a strong union apparat marched out the troops. But in New Hampshire, thin on unions and full of cussedness, the image of Mondale as goods bought and paid for looked less attractive; and although times haven’t been particularly bad in the Granite State, the voters there always like a little change in their lives.