When to Call the Election?

When wind and tide are set in opposite directions, the surface movement of the water can be very misleading; deep-flowing currents underneath are not visible, although experienced persons may be aware of them. The British political scene at the moment is conventionally supposed to present a rather similar phenomenon. The underlying trend is said to be quite strongly to the right, but the surface remains ambiguously choppy, and the bleak prevailing wind is still blowing leftward.

Sir Keith Joseph, an interesting, if nervous, thinker, who has special responsibility for developing—or at least thinking about—the policies of the Conservative Party, believes that the great majority of the electorate is firmly on the Conservative side about law and order, about colored immigration, about schools (one very left-wing trade union leader went so far as to say recently that “concern about educational standards is no longer reactionary”), but is still thoroughly imbued with socialist ideas about the welfare state and about economic issues generally.