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Peking Survival

China’s most menacing problem, now as in the future, remains the uncontrolled growth of its population, and unless there are substantially fewer Chinese before the end of the next hundred years, the country’s survival will be at stake. According to the Communist organ, the People’s Daily, the government hopes to limit the number of Chinese to 1.2 billion by the end of the century, but this is still far too great a figure for comfort. Chinese sociologists estimate that the best population mean would be around 680 million, to be reached over the next hundred years. But for that, a readjustment in the birth rate over the next seventy years is necessary. As of now, the average Chinese eats between two thousand and 2,600 calories of food a day, including considerably less than one hundred grams of protein. Only if agricultural production triples, and the population is stabilized at the 680 million figure, will the Chinese be sufficiently nourished in a hundred years. The widely heralded limit of two children per family has not worked. The Chinese have been used to large families for centuries, partly because their intensive agricultural cultivation needs many hands, and partly because children are security for that serene and respected old age so prized by Chinese society. A government plan to reward families for limiting themselves to one child by increasing their land allotments misfired for the very reason that larger holdings naturally need more children. There have been undenied reports of forced mass abortions of pregnant women from time to time, even of women in their eighth or ninth month. And mass sterilizations have also taken place. But such violence is basically inapplicable as an effective policy, even in a totalitarian state, in view of popular resistance. The effort to limit an ancient culture, accustomed to large families because of social imperatives, to single-child units will go far beyond politics, and will dominate, directly or indirectly, all major planning in the People’s Republic henceforward.

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Peking Survival

China’s most menacing problem, now as in the future, remains the uncontrolled growth of its population, and unless there are substantially fewer Chinese before the end of the next hundred years, the country’s survival will be at stake. According to the Communist organ, the People’s Daily, the government hopes to limit the number of Chinese to 1.2 billion by the end of the century, but this is still far too great a figure for comfort. Chinese sociologists estimate that the best population mean would be around 680 million, to be reached over the next hundred years. But for that, a readjustment in the birth rate over the next seventy years is necessary. As of now, the average Chinese eats between two thousand and 2,600 calories of food a day, including considerably less than one hundred grams of protein. Only if agricultural production triples, and the population is stabilized at the 680 million figure, will the Chinese be sufficiently nourished in a hundred years. The widely heralded limit of two children per family has not worked. The Chinese have been used to large families for centuries, partly because their intensive agricultural cultivation needs many hands, and partly because children are security for that serene and respected old age so prized by Chinese society. A government plan to reward families for limiting themselves to one child by increasing their land allotments misfired for the very reason that larger holdings naturally need more children. There have been undenied reports of forced mass abortions of pregnant women from time to time, even of women in their eighth or ninth month. And mass sterilizations have also taken place. But such violence is basically inapplicable as an effective policy, even in a totalitarian state, in view of popular resistance. The effort to limit an ancient culture, accustomed to large families because of social imperatives, to single-child units will go far beyond politics, and will dominate, directly or indirectly, all major planning in the People’s Republic henceforward.