Books in Brief: America at Century’s End

America at Century’s End, by James Schlesinger (Columbia University Press, 112 pp., $18.95)

This is a wise man, who casts an experienced and perceptive eye over American foreign policy and the challenges it faces. Though breaking no new ground, this book succinctly recapitulates how that policy has been shaped by our geography and our history (“. . . a belief in the natural, if not God-given, invulnerability of the United States”), and how closely tied it is to public opinion and domestic politics. Schlesinger believes the American economy is more than vigorous enough to retain America’s present position in the world: “. . . there is no reason to look to the future with foreboding.” He sees us—rightly—as being so much stronger than Russia that, while we may no longer be “economically a preponderant power,” we will continue to increase our standard of living and “it will be difficult [for other countries] to ignore our wishes.” Still, I wish to suggest a different likely scenario. When you look to the real indicators of the nation’s future economy there is gloomy news. A nation that continues to save little and borrow much, that has allowed its education system to deteriorate dramatically, and that has slipped rapidly from being the world’s largest creditor nation with the world’s highest productivity growth rate to being the world’s largest debtor nation with one of the lowest productivity growth rates in the industrialized world should have a higher sense of urgency than Schlesinger demonstrates. We are at an all-time low in net investment in new plant and equipment. A country’s foreign policy—its arm bone—is connected to its economy—its backbone—and I find it hard to be sanguine about the American economy. Metaphorically, America is lined up on the starting line in the Olympic race for the world’s highest standard of living. One runner wears only a Japanese flag. On the back of the second runner—our runner—we have heaped two-thirds of all the world’s lawyers, the highest health-care costs in the world, the largest number of functional illiterates, the highest rates of drug and alcohol abuse, an increasingly dysfunctional educational system, a work force with decreasing skills and motivation—to mention only a few encumbrances. I suspect Schlesinger has overestimated the strength of America’s economy and underestimated the turmoil inherent in a world whose challenges are shifting from East-West to North-South. Only time will tell.

RL

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Richard D. Lamm

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America at Century’s End, by James Schlesinger (Columbia University Press, 112 pp., $18.95)

This is a wise man, who casts an experienced and perceptive eye over American foreign policy and the challenges it faces. Though breaking no new ground, this book succinctly recapitulates how that policy has been shaped by our geography and our history (“. . . a belief in the natural, if not God-given, invulnerability of the United States”), and how closely tied it is to public opinion and domestic politics. Schlesinger believes the American economy is more than vigorous enough to retain America’s present position in the world: “. . . there is no reason to look to the future with foreboding.” He sees us—rightly—as being so much stronger than Russia that, while we may no longer be “economically a preponderant power,” we will continue to increase our standard of living and “it will be difficult [for other countries] to ignore our wishes.” Still, I wish to suggest a different likely scenario. When you look to the real indicators of the nation’s future economy there is gloomy news. A nation that continues to save little and borrow much, that has allowed its education system to deteriorate dramatically, and that has slipped rapidly from being the world’s largest creditor nation with the world’s highest productivity growth rate to being the world’s largest debtor nation with one of the lowest productivity growth rates in the industrialized world should have a higher sense of urgency than Schlesinger demonstrates. We are at an all-time low in net investment in new plant and equipment. A country’s foreign policy—its arm bone—is connected to its economy—its backbone—and I find it hard to be sanguine about the American economy. Metaphorically, America is lined up on the starting line in the Olympic race for the world’s highest standard of living. One runner wears only a Japanese flag. On the back of the second runner—our runner—we have heaped two-thirds of all the world’s lawyers, the highest health-care costs in the world, the largest number of functional illiterates, the highest rates of drug and alcohol abuse, an increasingly dysfunctional educational system, a work force with decreasing skills and motivation—to mention only a few encumbrances. I suspect Schlesinger has overestimated the strength of America’s economy and underestimated the turmoil inherent in a world whose challenges are shifting from East-West to North-South. Only time will tell.