Managua’s Mexican Standoff

The war between the Sandinista government and the democratic resistance in Nicaragua is diplomatic as well as military. Even if President Reagan soon obtains from Congress some military aid for the Contras, it is unlikely that the Nicaraguan democrats can win without sharply improving their diplomatic position. At present, none of the democracies outside Central America (except those of the Caribbean and a few smaller Latin American countries) has joined us in firm public support of the Contras. The Contras’ isolation casts doubt on the reliability of U.S. support for the resistance and increases the Sandinistas’ legitimacy at home and abroad.

In this regard European opinion is vital as well, since European support for the Contras would make things easier in the U.S. Congress and thus reassure those who doubt the U.S. commitment. But Europe is influenced in turn by the Contras’ lack of Latin support. If democratic governments were as sound on Nicaragua as they are on Afghanistan, the long-term prospects of the Sandinistas would be bad, and their democratic legitimacy would be as thin as that of Dr. Najibullah in Afghanistan or General Jaruzelski in Poland. In such circumstances there would be a number of scenarios for a Contra victory without U.S. troops.

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Max Singer

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The war between the Sandinista government and the democratic resistance in Nicaragua is diplomatic as well as military. Even if President Reagan soon obtains from Congress some military aid for the Contras, it is unlikely that the Nicaraguan democrats can win without sharply improving their diplomatic position. At present, none of the democracies outside Central America (except those of the Caribbean and a few smaller Latin American countries) has joined us in firm public support of the Contras. The Contras’ isolation casts doubt on the reliability of U.S. support for the resistance and increases the Sandinistas’ legitimacy at home and abroad.

In this regard European opinion is vital as well, since European support for the Contras would make things easier in the U.S. Congress and thus reassure those who doubt the U.S. commitment. But Europe is influenced in turn by the Contras’ lack of Latin support. If democratic governments were as sound on Nicaragua as they are on Afghanistan, the long-term prospects of the Sandinistas would be bad, and their democratic legitimacy would be as thin as that of Dr. Najibullah in Afghanistan or General Jaruzelski in Poland. In such circumstances there would be a number of scenarios for a Contra victory without U.S. troops.