Gekko

THE forces of darkness in the international markets took another hit last month with the fall of the so-called Socialist (read Communist) government in Bulgaria. When it was announced that a new Parliament would be elected in April, there was cheering not only among Bulgaria’s democrats, but also among my friends at the more speculative end of the international bond markets. We in the Street are all in favor of democracy, but our enthusiasm really picks up when there’s a fast buck to be made at it.

By the end of last year, most players in the emerging-markets bond world figured the easy money had been made. People who had bet on turnarounds in the seedier end of the market (the bonds of places like Nigeria or Venezuela) had pocketed returns of maybe 50 or 60 per cent on their money—more if they were leveraged—before passing the paper on to the public. But what was left? If they had read this column back in December, they would have already dumped their Ecuadorian bonds after making a quick turn. The only basket case/turnaround story left was Bulgaria.

JD

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John Dizard

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THE forces of darkness in the international markets took another hit last month with the fall of the so-called Socialist (read Communist) government in Bulgaria. When it was announced that a new Parliament would be elected in April, there was cheering not only among Bulgaria’s democrats, but also among my friends at the more speculative end of the international bond markets. We in the Street are all in favor of democracy, but our enthusiasm really picks up when there’s a fast buck to be made at it.

By the end of last year, most players in the emerging-markets bond world figured the easy money had been made. People who had bet on turnarounds in the seedier end of the market (the bonds of places like Nigeria or Venezuela) had pocketed returns of maybe 50 or 60 per cent on their money—more if they were leveraged—before passing the paper on to the public. But what was left? If they had read this column back in December, they would have already dumped their Ecuadorian bonds after making a quick turn. The only basket case/turnaround story left was Bulgaria.