SOME conservatives in a quiet Washington are watching the presidential primaries with a sense of despair, but others have permitted themselves a dose of wishful thinking and are talking in whispered tones about the prospect of a brokered convention to choose the nominee. It would be the first one since Wendell Willkie was picked on the sixth ballot in 1940. Even these wishful thinkers grant that an open convention in San Diego is unlikely. Morton Blackwell, one of the GOP’s most seasoned strategists, dismisses all talk of a brokered convention because experience tells him that a kind of “law of the lemmings” operates in primaries: “As soon as one candidate creates a widely perceived win psychology, too many people will jump on his bandwagon for fear of being left behind.” He argues that present-day candidates run national campaigns and so brokered conventions belong to a bygone era of regional candidates and favorite sons.
Yet this year’s unique circumstances and candidates increase the possibility that no one will be able to secure the 996 delegates needed to win the nomination. A number of candidates have the ability to go the distance and each of them enjoys the support of distinct factions within the party. Bob Dole has the party support and funding to contest in every state, Pat Buchanan is a man on a mission and his enthusiastic grassroots supporters can deliver delegates (California?), Steve Forbes’s message and money could be focused in key states to win his share of the votes (Arizona, New York, Maryland?), and Lamar Alexander hopes that his moderate, “none of the above” appeal will grow through the end of March.
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