For the Record

Paul Kirk, of Democratic National Committee, spent 1985 trying to put Humpty-Dumpty together again after blasting party took November ’84. But while morale is up, finances are down. DNC reports it raised just $7 million in ’85, down from $22 million in ’84—which was, to be sure, a presidential year. Comments DNC spokesman Terry Michael: “When you come off a defeat that disastrous [loss of 49 states] you have what might be called in the business community ‘investor reluctance.’ ”. . . House Democrats, meeting in Greenbrier, W. Va., were euphoric about prospects of increasing their House majority in November. Analyst Kevin Phillips left meeting unconvinced: “I have a sense,” he says, “that Democrats are as confused and befuddled and divided as the Republicans were after 1964.”. . . However, major pollsters (Gallup, Harris, Yankelovitch) conclude Republican popularity peaked early in 1985—i.e., at that time very nearly as many Americans identified themselves as Republicans as Democrats. Now the Dems lead by between eight and 13 points. . . . Washington Post columnist Haynes Johnson welcomes back 99th Congress, which he says, will, like it or not, face “the greatest political challenge yet.” Its response to Gramm-Rudman, tax reform, defense outlays will decide whether “Reagan’s Presidency has brought . . . lasting political change or merely represents a correction in the government course Americans have favored throughout this century.”

Four of the 11 GOP stalwarts who voted against forty-year-old genocide treaty are in for tough re-election battles this fall: Sens. Denton (Ala.), Garn (Utah), Grassley (Iowa), and Symms (Idaho). Some conservative objections were taken up in version Senate passed. World Court gets jurisdiction in U.S. cases only if Washington consents; nothing in the treaty will require the U.S. to take any action barred by the Constitution. . . . Also bad news for GOP incumbents. Arthur Sindlinger points out there is little prospect of eased recession this summer and fall in 28 states whose economies depend on the depressed oil and gas, farm and textile industries. In all 28, Republicans are running. . . . Kevin Phillips rates five Republican Senate seats as vulnerable or very vulnerable: Maryland and Nevada (Mathias and Laxalt retiring), Florida (Hawkins), Idaho (Symms), South Dakota (Abdnor); and three vulnerable and very vulnerable Democratic seats that are being vacated by Russell Long (La.), Thomas Eagleton (Mo.), and Gary Hart (Colo.). . . . Although excitement in California is on Republican side, where contenders for Alan Cranston’s seat grab the spotlight, Cranston is very vulnerable, says Chris Kennedy of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign. That is one of the five races the conference is targetting. Cranston may not be helped by latest ADA rating that shows him, and four other Democrats (Tom Harkin, Gary Hart, Howard Metzenbaum, and Paul Sarbanes) 100 per cent liberal-pure. Newest challenger in California is Bill Allen, a black conservative with an enthusiastic backing. . . . First significant senatorial primary will be in Illinois, March 18, pitting conservative Judy Koehler against moderate George Ranney, with Mrs. Koehler given the edge. But Democrat Alan Dixon will be hard to beat.

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Paul Kirk, of Democratic National Committee, spent 1985 trying to put Humpty-Dumpty together again after blasting party took November ’84. But while morale is up, finances are down. DNC reports it raised just $7 million in ’85, down from $22 million in ’84—which was, to be sure, a presidential year. Comments DNC spokesman Terry Michael: “When you come off a defeat that disastrous [loss of 49 states] you have what might be called in the business community ‘investor reluctance.’ ”. . . House Democrats, meeting in Greenbrier, W. Va., were euphoric about prospects of increasing their House majority in November. Analyst Kevin Phillips left meeting unconvinced: “I have a sense,” he says, “that Democrats are as confused and befuddled and divided as the Republicans were after 1964.”. . . However, major pollsters (Gallup, Harris, Yankelovitch) conclude Republican popularity peaked early in 1985—i.e., at that time very nearly as many Americans identified themselves as Republicans as Democrats. Now the Dems lead by between eight and 13 points. . . . Washington Post columnist Haynes Johnson welcomes back 99th Congress, which he says, will, like it or not, face “the greatest political challenge yet.” Its response to Gramm-Rudman, tax reform, defense outlays will decide whether “Reagan’s Presidency has brought . . . lasting political change or merely represents a correction in the government course Americans have favored throughout this century.”

Four of the 11 GOP stalwarts who voted against forty-year-old genocide treaty are in for tough re-election battles this fall: Sens. Denton (Ala.), Garn (Utah), Grassley (Iowa), and Symms (Idaho). Some conservative objections were taken up in version Senate passed. World Court gets jurisdiction in U.S. cases only if Washington consents; nothing in the treaty will require the U.S. to take any action barred by the Constitution. . . . Also bad news for GOP incumbents. Arthur Sindlinger points out there is little prospect of eased recession this summer and fall in 28 states whose economies depend on the depressed oil and gas, farm and textile industries. In all 28, Republicans are running. . . . Kevin Phillips rates five Republican Senate seats as vulnerable or very vulnerable: Maryland and Nevada (Mathias and Laxalt retiring), Florida (Hawkins), Idaho (Symms), South Dakota (Abdnor); and three vulnerable and very vulnerable Democratic seats that are being vacated by Russell Long (La.), Thomas Eagleton (Mo.), and Gary Hart (Colo.). . . . Although excitement in California is on Republican side, where contenders for Alan Cranston’s seat grab the spotlight, Cranston is very vulnerable, says Chris Kennedy of the National Republican Senatorial Campaign. That is one of the five races the conference is targetting. Cranston may not be helped by latest ADA rating that shows him, and four other Democrats (Tom Harkin, Gary Hart, Howard Metzenbaum, and Paul Sarbanes) 100 per cent liberal-pure. Newest challenger in California is Bill Allen, a black conservative with an enthusiastic backing. . . . First significant senatorial primary will be in Illinois, March 18, pitting conservative Judy Koehler against moderate George Ranney, with Mrs. Koehler given the edge. But Democrat Alan Dixon will be hard to beat.