The Current Wisdom

Colin Clark, the resource economist, is a mischievous fellow. He is the type of man who delights in examining the accepted wisdom in a disinterested, zero-based way. He is the type of man who, when ushered into the presence of the grand scenario writer, nods quietly, reaches for pad and pen, jots down copious notes, and then stashes them in a tickler file dated twenty years hence. He is the type of man who, from the perspective of the New Class, is not a lot of fun.

In 1950, Clark has noted, our known oil reserves amounted to 75 billion barrels. Over the next two decades, our profligate society managed to consume 180 billion barrels, at the end of which period the official scorecard revealed known oil reserves of . . . 455 billion barrels. Nor was oil the only resource where the numbers seemed to move around on the page. World reserves of iron were recorded at 19,000 million metric tons in 1950. By 1970 we had taken 9,355 million metric tons out of the ground, leaving . . . what? In 1970, according to the accepted numbers, world reserves amounted to 251,000 million metric tons—an increase of more than 1,000 per cent. Then there is the case of bauxite, a critically important mineral to the energy-conscious industrial world. In 1950, world reserves were recorded at 1,400 million metric tons. Twenty years later, after production of 505 million metric tons, reserves had soared to 5,300 million metric tons. And so on. Clark adduces the numbers for manganese and copper and zinc and lead and phosphate and chromite. In each case, the official numbers, reflecting a static view of an essentially dynamic process, were undone by the industry, wit, and “good luck” of those willing to suspend their belief in the accepted wisdom.

About the Author

Neal B. Freeman

Neal B. Freeman, businessman and journalist, was a director of National Review Inc. for 38 years.

Featured Tags

Colin Clark, the resource economist, is a mischievous fellow. He is the type of man who delights in examining the accepted wisdom in a disinterested, zero-based way. He is the type of man who, when ushered into the presence of the grand scenario writer, nods quietly, reaches for pad and pen, jots down copious notes, and then stashes them in a tickler file dated twenty years hence. He is the type of man who, from the perspective of the New Class, is not a lot of fun.

In 1950, Clark has noted, our known oil reserves amounted to 75 billion barrels. Over the next two decades, our profligate society managed to consume 180 billion barrels, at the end of which period the official scorecard revealed known oil reserves of . . . 455 billion barrels. Nor was oil the only resource where the numbers seemed to move around on the page. World reserves of iron were recorded at 19,000 million metric tons in 1950. By 1970 we had taken 9,355 million metric tons out of the ground, leaving . . . what? In 1970, according to the accepted numbers, world reserves amounted to 251,000 million metric tons—an increase of more than 1,000 per cent. Then there is the case of bauxite, a critically important mineral to the energy-conscious industrial world. In 1950, world reserves were recorded at 1,400 million metric tons. Twenty years later, after production of 505 million metric tons, reserves had soared to 5,300 million metric tons. And so on. Clark adduces the numbers for manganese and copper and zinc and lead and phosphate and chromite. In each case, the official numbers, reflecting a static view of an essentially dynamic process, were undone by the industry, wit, and “good luck” of those willing to suspend their belief in the accepted wisdom.