■ Current polls have Ross Perot garnering as much as 25 per cent of vote against George Bush and Bill Clinton in November. (Polls at this stage in 1980 and 1968, however, had both John Anderson and George Wallace in 20 per cent range; Anderson wound up with 7 per cent and Wallace with 13.) . . . Former Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins says, “I would be most concerned [about Perot] if I were sitting in the President’s camp, because this is a guy who is going to spend $100 million arguing against the status quo.” . . . Kevin Phillips figures Perot—pro-military, pro-business—would tap votes of Sun Belt Republicans, 40 per cent of whom are strong Bush doubters. Phillips envisions Perot, if he enters and stays in to the end, drawing two votes from Bush nationwide for every vote he draws from Clinton. On that reading, a Perot candidacy could help Clinton carry the eight states in which Bush beat Michael Dukakis by less than 5 per cent (California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, New Mexico, Pennsylvania, and Vermont) and to win Texas or his home state, Arkansas, and one other, thus giving him at least the 270 electoral votes needed. . . . How will check bouncers fare in November? Times-Mirror finds that 61 per cent of Americans polled would probably or definitely vote against a ten-check bouncer; 78 per cent against hundred-check bouncer. . . . Possible huge gain for Republicans from redistricting in Florida, where congressional make-up could change from the current 10 Republicans and 9 Democrats to 17 and 6. … In Massachusetts, three Dems look vulnerable because of redistricting and House Bank mess: Joseph Early, Chet Atkins, and Nicholas Mavroules. . . . Meanwhile Becker Institute poll has Bay State GOP Gov. William Weld’s approval rating up to 54 per cent, from 41 per cent in October. Weld will join fellow GOP governors John Engler of Michigan and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin at November conference on states and welfare reform sponsored by national review, Cato Institute, and Change-NY. Contact Lisa Nelson at NR for info.
■ Who is taking over whom? As Hong Kong waits warily for 1997 Peking takeover, its booming economy (the world’s 11th largest trading “nation”) becomes more dependent on China, with 80 per cent of its exports originating on Mainland. But they come mostly from neighboring Guangdong province, whose economy is growing at more than 25 per cent a year by defying Peking’s economic policies; in a January visit there Paramount Leader Deng Xiaoping relaunched his economic reform program, making South China his model. . . . Hamish Macleod, Hong Kong’s Financial Secretary, explains the Crown Colony’s success: “a commitment to enterprise,. . . low taxation, and . . . free markets and free trade.” Macleod reported a 5 per cent growth in GDP, up from 4 per cent last year. . . . Meanwhile, businessmen from Taiwan (whose central reserves are more than $85 billion, largest in the world) have invested more than $3 billion in 2,800 projects in Hong Kong and South China. Taiwan’s GNP is growing at over 7 per cent a year. Still, many locals are hedging their bets: some 1,200 Hong Kongers are leaving weekly for Canada, the U.S., and Southeast Asia. . . . Pentagon Assistant Secretary James Lilley has been making speeches warning Communist China not to use its increasing military budget to threaten Taiwan. . . . Other Asian Communists are still acting like old-fashioned Stalinists: In Pyongyang, 84-year-old Chinese President Yang Shang-kun celebrated the eightieth birthday of Kim Il-sung, North Korea’s Beloved Leader and Ever Victorious Captain of the Korean People, with a cast of hundreds of thousands in a style that would have warmed Tovarishch Josef’s heart. Kim got a quilt stuffed with the down from the necks of 700,000 sparrows. . . . Japan-bashers are having a hard time with Tokyo’s stock-market rout: They can’t take much satisfaction in a “recession” in which GNP growth rate continues at over 2 per cent and there will be 1.25 jobs for each entrant into the labor market.
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