Will Syria Engage Israel?

Damascus—The current preoccupation of diplomats and strategists in the Levant is whether Syria will enter the conflict should Israel invade southern Lebanon. In 1978, when the Israelis penetrated southern Lebanon and occupied it for three months, Damascus stayed out. But whether she will stay out in the event of another Israeli incursion is far from certain, and Israel must calculate the risk of Syria’s entry very carefully. So much hangs on the decision of Damascus, it may be said, that Syria holds three aces in the post-Sinai conflict strategy and Israel one.

Syria has about a quarter of a million men under arms and another 100,000 that can be called up on short notice. Syria’s army can field almost four thousand tanks, including some eight hundred Soviet T-72s. The air force is able to launch 450 jet war planes, including a goodly number of Soviet MiG-25s. As these figures suggest, the army and air force have been beefed up considerably since 1973; the Syrian navy, on the other hand, remains a joke. No question that Syria would get a bloody nose in a full-scale contest with Israel. But, with Syria as a second front, Israel would take many casualties too, a prospect that she does not like at all.

JM

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John McLaughlin

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Damascus—The current preoccupation of diplomats and strategists in the Levant is whether Syria will enter the conflict should Israel invade southern Lebanon. In 1978, when the Israelis penetrated southern Lebanon and occupied it for three months, Damascus stayed out. But whether she will stay out in the event of another Israeli incursion is far from certain, and Israel must calculate the risk of Syria’s entry very carefully. So much hangs on the decision of Damascus, it may be said, that Syria holds three aces in the post-Sinai conflict strategy and Israel one.

Syria has about a quarter of a million men under arms and another 100,000 that can be called up on short notice. Syria’s army can field almost four thousand tanks, including some eight hundred Soviet T-72s. The air force is able to launch 450 jet war planes, including a goodly number of Soviet MiG-25s. As these figures suggest, the army and air force have been beefed up considerably since 1973; the Syrian navy, on the other hand, remains a joke. No question that Syria would get a bloody nose in a full-scale contest with Israel. But, with Syria as a second front, Israel would take many casualties too, a prospect that she does not like at all.