Softening Up the Germans

The proposed Shultz-Gorbachev arms deal would remove all medium-range U.S. nuclear missiles from Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, and the Netherlands (or, in the latter case, prevent their installation, scheduled for 1988), as well as West Germany. However, West Germany is clearly the main target, and it is largely a political target. One of the Soviets’ chief foreign-policy goals is to demilitarize West Germany, render it neutral, and create thereby a large, impotent Austria in the middle of Europe.

This achieved, the smaller NATO countries—Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Denmark—could be expected quickly to follow Germany into neutrality. France, Great Britain, Norway, and Italy would probably try to hold together a rump NATO, but the pressure on the British, from within and without, to get rid of their nuclear weapons would be overwhelming. The common European defense would become useless, and the Soviet Union would dominate Western Europe—without having fired a shot. France, with its formidable array of nuclear weapons, would be the last to succumb to Soviet hegemony, but it is difficult to see how it could stand alone very long.

EG

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Evan G. Galbraith

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The proposed Shultz-Gorbachev arms deal would remove all medium-range U.S. nuclear missiles from Belgium, Great Britain, Italy, and the Netherlands (or, in the latter case, prevent their installation, scheduled for 1988), as well as West Germany. However, West Germany is clearly the main target, and it is largely a political target. One of the Soviets’ chief foreign-policy goals is to demilitarize West Germany, render it neutral, and create thereby a large, impotent Austria in the middle of Europe.

This achieved, the smaller NATO countries—Belgium, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Denmark—could be expected quickly to follow Germany into neutrality. France, Great Britain, Norway, and Italy would probably try to hold together a rump NATO, but the pressure on the British, from within and without, to get rid of their nuclear weapons would be overwhelming. The common European defense would become useless, and the Soviet Union would dominate Western Europe—without having fired a shot. France, with its formidable array of nuclear weapons, would be the last to succumb to Soviet hegemony, but it is difficult to see how it could stand alone very long.