“Why Goldwater Is Gaining Ground”—the title of an article in the current issue of U.S. News and World Report… “Goldwater Dead, Eh?”—the title of an editorial in the New York Daily News… “In the next few weeks developments in the Barry Goldwater drive for the GOP. Presidential nomination will produce solid evidence that he will go into the San Francisco convention within shooting distance of victory”—lead sentence in a dispatch from Washington columnist Ted Lewis… “A growing number of politicians believe Senator Goldwater will enter the Republican National Convention with enough strength either to win the Presidential nomination on the first ballot or to pick the winner”—lead in a dispatch by the prominent political reporter Joseph Loftus of the New York Times… “At the present time, there is too much tendency to write off Goldwater. Delegates nominate and Goldwater is very close to having the requisite number. If he wins in California, either he will be the candidate, or he will name him”—Nixon… “Mr. President, sir, Senator Goldwater said he was leading the pack for the Republican nomination. Do you think he will be the Republican nominee?” “… I think he will be up there pretty high.” Had enough?
It’s getting harder to express Goldwater’s delegate strength in numerals, because numerals don’t differentiate among delegates who are “committed,” “firm,” “favoring,” or “leaning.” Even so Goldwater strategists are now counting on 179, including only 33 from Illinois (though most observers credit Goldwater with about 54). Estimates of Goldwater’s support on the first ballot vary from the conservative 435 at Goldwater HQ to a whopping 632 mentioned by President Johnson. Lodge at the moment has 14. All other GOP pretenders together have zero.
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