November 2 fallout. As of the week before the election, aides around Ronald Reagan say loss of 15 to twenty seats from Administration’s “working coalition” in House—GOP members and conservative Democrats—could force reduction in scope of “Reagan Revolution” or, if Reagan decides to fight, could result in a series of stalemates with Congress. . . . Outcome of midterm election will also affect Reagan decision on a second term. “If we take a bath,” says a White House aide, “it will increase pressure for an early decision.” . . . Democratic National Committee Chairman Charles Manatt says Reagan remains “politically formidable.” He told Christian Science Monitor that Democrats will gain “15 or more seats in the House,” but hedged that a while later, when speaking to Washington Post, saying Democrats would gain 12 to 15 in House. . . . Richard Richards, outgoing chairman of Republican National Committee, sees GOP “losing no more than ten to 12 seats in the House. And I see us picking up a net gain of three in the Senate.” Comments Richards: “If the Democrats had a program they could sell in a heads-up way, I think we’d be in real trouble. But they’re running against Herbert Hoover.” . . . Going out on a limb: Democratic pollster Pat Caddell says if Democrats play their cards right, they could win forty or more seats in House and could have a chance (though remote) of regaining control of Senate. . . . National Education Association, largest teachers’ union in nation and strong Reagan foe, has contributed $1.2 million to ’82 campaign and endorsed 329 House and Senate candidates, says Kenneth Melley, NEA’s director of political affairs. All but 18 of 329 are Democrats. Favored GOP few include Lowell Weicker (Conn.), John Heinz (Pa.), and Robert Stafford (Vt.).
Senator Sam Nunn (D., Ga.) has come out against proposal, already approved by Senate Appropriations Committee, to withdraw 23,000 American GIs stationed in Europe. When lameduck session begins November 29, Nunn will seek a freeze on U.S. troop levels in Europe, at 325,000, until NATO allies strengthen their conventional forces. . . . Defense Secretary Weinberger is assembling a Defense team to go to Israel to study lessons of Israeli campaign in Lebanon. U.S. is most interested in Israel’s astonishing success against Soviet-built MiG fighters. Syria lost at least 86 aircraft, to 0 for Israel. Ariel Sharon, Israel’s defense minister, has also invited U.S. to inspect captured Soviet equipment. . . . Israel is suffering some ill effects of its summer in Lebanon. Tourism, since the war, has declined 20 per cent from last year’s levels, and inflation, says government spokesman David Neumann, has increased from annual equivalent of 100 per cent before Lebanon to 130 per cent now. . . . Nattering Nabobs of Negativism: A 12-page UN report on press coverage of UN has words of praise for Communist and Third World countries, while it terms Western press coverage, which tends to focus on topics such as world body’s alleged financial ineptitude, “grossly inaccurate.” Report concedes UN has some flaws, but it says these can be solved by more money and more staff.
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