For the Record

It was a tie, everyone declared after Kansas City, but overnight polls for Newsweek (Gallup), ABC News, CBS/ New York Times each showed Ronald Reagan three points up; U.S.A. Today gave the President whopping 17-point lead. . . . How about the political experts? The ever-liberal Mary McGrory hated to say it, but “the genial, nimble-witted, sure-footed self [Walter Mondale] presented in Louisville was supplanted by the cautious politician of melancholy memory.” . . . Former Democratic National Chairman Robert Strauss commented: “Reagan’s performance . . . raised a serious problem [of Mondale’s] running out of time” to overhaul the President. . . . Said Lyn Nofziger: “Walter Mondale has had his last shot.” . . . Mondale campaign manager Robert Beckel insists the race is still a “tossup,” to which White House chief-of-staff James Baker replies, “He’s whistling past the graveyard,” and comments that Mondale will have to win a million votes a day to catch the President by Nov. 6. . . . Political analyst Kevin Phillips devoted first two and a half pages of his insiders’ newsletter dated Oct. 19 (post-Louisville, pre-Kansas City) to composition of next Reagan Administration, so convinced is he, presumably, that that’s the next order of business. . . . As of moment (Oct. 25), by everyone’s count, Mondale leads only in Minnesota and District of Columbia.

On individual races: According to Kevin Phillips, first debate caused definite GOP slippage in senatorial races in four states: Iowa (Roger Jepsen), North Carolina (Jesse Helms), Minnesota (Rudy Boschwitz), Mississippi (Thad Cochran). Phillips now sees possibility of two-to four-seat GOP loss in Senate, ten-to twenty-seat GOP gain in House. … In other races: Richard Lugar, chairman of Republican Senatorial Committee, says Phil Gramm is ten to 15 points ahead of Lloyd Doggett in Texas; Mitch McConnell has gained 13 points in a month, now trails incumbent Walter Huddleston by 12 points in Kentucky. . . . Latest figures from Massachusetts show Democratic Lt. Gov. John Kerry nine points ahead of Republican Ray Shamie, another close one. . . . New Yorkers are watching House race in 9th CD. How will Serph Maltese, longtime executive director of N.Y. Conservative Party, do in his race to take congressional seat vacated by Geraldine Ferraro? Maltese is trailing in heavily Democratic district. . . . Not too much remarked that this is a big year for women in Senate races. No troubles foreseen for Sen. Nancy Kassebaum running for re-election in Kansas; but other women candidates not doing well except for Joan Growe, who is just nine points behind Republican Sen. Boschwitz in Minnesota. . . . Democratic challenger Nancy Dick is presenting no problems for Sen. William Armstrong in Colorado. Nor are Democrats Libby Mitchell (Me.), Judy Pratt (N.M.), Margie Hendriksen (Ore.), and Edythe Harrison (Va.) doing any better against Republican incumbents William Cohen, Pete Domenici, Mark Hatfield, and John Warner. . . . Republican challengers Mary Mochary (N.J), Nancy Hoch (Neb.), and Barbara Leonard (R.I.) having equally hard going against popular incumbents Bill Bradley, James Exon, and Claiborne Pell. . . . Final distaff note: No copies of the very critical New York Post and Philadelphia Inquirer are allowed on Ferraro press plane.

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It was a tie, everyone declared after Kansas City, but overnight polls for Newsweek (Gallup), ABC News, CBS/ New York Times each showed Ronald Reagan three points up; U.S.A. Today gave the President whopping 17-point lead. . . . How about the political experts? The ever-liberal Mary McGrory hated to say it, but “the genial, nimble-witted, sure-footed self [Walter Mondale] presented in Louisville was supplanted by the cautious politician of melancholy memory.” . . . Former Democratic National Chairman Robert Strauss commented: “Reagan’s performance . . . raised a serious problem [of Mondale’s] running out of time” to overhaul the President. . . . Said Lyn Nofziger: “Walter Mondale has had his last shot.” . . . Mondale campaign manager Robert Beckel insists the race is still a “tossup,” to which White House chief-of-staff James Baker replies, “He’s whistling past the graveyard,” and comments that Mondale will have to win a million votes a day to catch the President by Nov. 6. . . . Political analyst Kevin Phillips devoted first two and a half pages of his insiders’ newsletter dated Oct. 19 (post-Louisville, pre-Kansas City) to composition of next Reagan Administration, so convinced is he, presumably, that that’s the next order of business. . . . As of moment (Oct. 25), by everyone’s count, Mondale leads only in Minnesota and District of Columbia.

On individual races: According to Kevin Phillips, first debate caused definite GOP slippage in senatorial races in four states: Iowa (Roger Jepsen), North Carolina (Jesse Helms), Minnesota (Rudy Boschwitz), Mississippi (Thad Cochran). Phillips now sees possibility of two-to four-seat GOP loss in Senate, ten-to twenty-seat GOP gain in House. … In other races: Richard Lugar, chairman of Republican Senatorial Committee, says Phil Gramm is ten to 15 points ahead of Lloyd Doggett in Texas; Mitch McConnell has gained 13 points in a month, now trails incumbent Walter Huddleston by 12 points in Kentucky. . . . Latest figures from Massachusetts show Democratic Lt. Gov. John Kerry nine points ahead of Republican Ray Shamie, another close one. . . . New Yorkers are watching House race in 9th CD. How will Serph Maltese, longtime executive director of N.Y. Conservative Party, do in his race to take congressional seat vacated by Geraldine Ferraro? Maltese is trailing in heavily Democratic district. . . . Not too much remarked that this is a big year for women in Senate races. No troubles foreseen for Sen. Nancy Kassebaum running for re-election in Kansas; but other women candidates not doing well except for Joan Growe, who is just nine points behind Republican Sen. Boschwitz in Minnesota. . . . Democratic challenger Nancy Dick is presenting no problems for Sen. William Armstrong in Colorado. Nor are Democrats Libby Mitchell (Me.), Judy Pratt (N.M.), Margie Hendriksen (Ore.), and Edythe Harrison (Va.) doing any better against Republican incumbents William Cohen, Pete Domenici, Mark Hatfield, and John Warner. . . . Republican challengers Mary Mochary (N.J), Nancy Hoch (Neb.), and Barbara Leonard (R.I.) having equally hard going against popular incumbents Bill Bradley, James Exon, and Claiborne Pell. . . . Final distaff note: No copies of the very critical New York Post and Philadelphia Inquirer are allowed on Ferraro press plane.