For the Record

A bad year for Big Labor—starting last Nov. 4 when nearly as many union members voted for Reagan as for Carter—came full circle Nov. 3, 1981 when labor apparently failed to put over its candidate for governor of New Jersey, James Florio. The AFL-CIO sank a lot into Florio’s campaign—a five-hundred-instrument phone bank, one thousand volunteer campaign workers, nearly a million pieces of literature mailed or passed out at factory doors. Despite which Republican Thomas Kean seems to be the winner. … A Gallup poll shows fewer Americans than ever (55 per cent) approving of labor unions, down from a high of 72 per cent. . . . Another poll (Robert Teeter) indicates that while only 16 per cent of union members are Republicans, 52 per cent approve of Ronald Reagan. . . . Other blows: Reagan’s successful and popular handling of the air-controllers’ strike; and the recession, particularly in the auto industry, that has made deep cuts in the membership of some of the more radical industrial unions, the Autoworkers and the Machinists. … In retaliation, the AFL-CIO—for the first time—did not invite either the President or his Secretary of Labor, Raymond Donovan, to address its convention in New York City on November 16. . . . In the other major election of the year, in Virginia, the GOP had its worst fears confirmed when 97 per cent of the black vote went for Democrat Chuck Robb. Says Republican National Chairman Richard Richards: “Any Republican who runs in an area with a substantial black vote is in jeopardy of being defeated by that black vote.”

Political analyst Kevin Phillips sees the results of Nov. 3 as “inconclusive,” but possibly damaging to GOP hopes for winning control of the House in 1982. Phillips reports that White House pollster Richard Wirthlin and political advisor Lyn Nofziger are now thinking in terms of a ten-to 15-seat gain for the Republicans in the House (short of the 25 needed to win control). . . . House Speaker Tip O’Neill is not so sure. Says he, after six months in the ring with Reagan: “He’s one hell of a pol. He’s a master. There’s just something about the guy that people like. . . . They’re rooting for him.” . . . Some major problems ahead for the President: the stringent defense package Republican Sen. Nancy Kassebaum is pushing, to slash $25 billion from the defense budget by eliminating just about everything Reagan wants (B-ls, MX silos, nuclear carrier, etc.). Her sponsorship of these deep slashes, on top of David Stockman’s deep-six-the-Pentagon tactics, will make it harder for pro-defense Democrats to stick with the President.

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A bad year for Big Labor—starting last Nov. 4 when nearly as many union members voted for Reagan as for Carter—came full circle Nov. 3, 1981 when labor apparently failed to put over its candidate for governor of New Jersey, James Florio. The AFL-CIO sank a lot into Florio’s campaign—a five-hundred-instrument phone bank, one thousand volunteer campaign workers, nearly a million pieces of literature mailed or passed out at factory doors. Despite which Republican Thomas Kean seems to be the winner. … A Gallup poll shows fewer Americans than ever (55 per cent) approving of labor unions, down from a high of 72 per cent. . . . Another poll (Robert Teeter) indicates that while only 16 per cent of union members are Republicans, 52 per cent approve of Ronald Reagan. . . . Other blows: Reagan’s successful and popular handling of the air-controllers’ strike; and the recession, particularly in the auto industry, that has made deep cuts in the membership of some of the more radical industrial unions, the Autoworkers and the Machinists. … In retaliation, the AFL-CIO—for the first time—did not invite either the President or his Secretary of Labor, Raymond Donovan, to address its convention in New York City on November 16. . . . In the other major election of the year, in Virginia, the GOP had its worst fears confirmed when 97 per cent of the black vote went for Democrat Chuck Robb. Says Republican National Chairman Richard Richards: “Any Republican who runs in an area with a substantial black vote is in jeopardy of being defeated by that black vote.”

Political analyst Kevin Phillips sees the results of Nov. 3 as “inconclusive,” but possibly damaging to GOP hopes for winning control of the House in 1982. Phillips reports that White House pollster Richard Wirthlin and political advisor Lyn Nofziger are now thinking in terms of a ten-to 15-seat gain for the Republicans in the House (short of the 25 needed to win control). . . . House Speaker Tip O’Neill is not so sure. Says he, after six months in the ring with Reagan: “He’s one hell of a pol. He’s a master. There’s just something about the guy that people like. . . . They’re rooting for him.” . . . Some major problems ahead for the President: the stringent defense package Republican Sen. Nancy Kassebaum is pushing, to slash $25 billion from the defense budget by eliminating just about everything Reagan wants (B-ls, MX silos, nuclear carrier, etc.). Her sponsorship of these deep slashes, on top of David Stockman’s deep-six-the-Pentagon tactics, will make it harder for pro-defense Democrats to stick with the President.