For the Record

The figures are coming up so rosy it’s hard not to be Pollyannaish. “As of now,” says political analyst Kevin Phillips, “there’s no state in which Mondale has a clear edge [over Reagan].” Mondale had been ahead in West Virginia, Maryland, Hawaii, Minnesota, and the District of Columbia. Today it’s Reagan over Mondale 17 points in West Virginia, 23 in Iowa, seven in Minnesota, eight in Hawaii. Mondale’s still ahead in D.C. . . . Alan Baron, a regular Democratic commentator with MacNeil-Lehrer, puts Mondale’s support “at about the level of Barry Goldwater’s in 1964 and George McGovern’s in 1972.” Baron goes on to say that the Democrats have explained away their devastating losses “in 1968, 1972, and 1980 to insurgents (McCarthy), independents (Wallace, Anderson), outsiders (Carter), and foreigners (Ho Chi Minh, Ayatollah Khomeini), but none of this holds this time around. Mondale is ‘the quintessential establishment candidate’ with support from every element of the party.” Baron suggests the Democrats need a new idea. . . . Washington Post columnist Haynes Johnson says that if it is true that “the 18-to-25 age bracket is 4 or 5 to 1 Republican,” then “we are witnessing something more historic this fall than the re-election of another President. We are seeing a changing of the political order.” . . . According to Gallup, the registration gap between the front-running Democratic Party and the Republican Party has narrowed by eight points since 1980, although the Democrats still lead 42 to 28, independents remaining steady at 30 per cent. . . . As of now, says Reagan campaign director Ed Rollins, 29 per cent of registered Democrats would vote for Reagan; he estimates Reagan needs only 25 per cent of the Dems to carry the election. . . . Washington Post columnist David Broder concluded a column titled “Why Reagan Is Winning” with the comment: “He is winning on low inflation, a rise in real income for the record number of employed, and leadership palpably stronger than that of his recent predecessors. Give him his due, dear liberals, but do not sign any articles of surrender.”

Mid-September figures put Reagan between 9 (Harris) and thirty (NBC News) points ahead of Mondale, with NBC finding only 4 per cent of the voters still undecided, an amazingly low figure this early in the campaign. Same poll shows 63 per cent of voters think George Bush would make a better President than Geraldine Ferraro; among Democrats, 59 per cent were happy that Mrs. Ferraro was nominated, but only 40 per cent of them think she would make a better President than Bush. Stranger still, among voters who described themselves as liberals, 44 per cent “feel closer” to Reagan than to Mondale. . . . Mondale’s deficit reduction plan, it turns out, didn’t play in Peoria. An ABC/ Washington Post poll following the speech shows that 75 per cent of the people think Reagan’s predecessors were responsible for the deficit; 50 per cent put the blame on Congress. . . . It wasn’t exactly a shot in the arm to Mondale campaign when Gary Hart said on Cable News Network that if he had been the candidate he’d be leading Reagan in 12 states by now.

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The figures are coming up so rosy it’s hard not to be Pollyannaish. “As of now,” says political analyst Kevin Phillips, “there’s no state in which Mondale has a clear edge [over Reagan].” Mondale had been ahead in West Virginia, Maryland, Hawaii, Minnesota, and the District of Columbia. Today it’s Reagan over Mondale 17 points in West Virginia, 23 in Iowa, seven in Minnesota, eight in Hawaii. Mondale’s still ahead in D.C. . . . Alan Baron, a regular Democratic commentator with MacNeil-Lehrer, puts Mondale’s support “at about the level of Barry Goldwater’s in 1964 and George McGovern’s in 1972.” Baron goes on to say that the Democrats have explained away their devastating losses “in 1968, 1972, and 1980 to insurgents (McCarthy), independents (Wallace, Anderson), outsiders (Carter), and foreigners (Ho Chi Minh, Ayatollah Khomeini), but none of this holds this time around. Mondale is ‘the quintessential establishment candidate’ with support from every element of the party.” Baron suggests the Democrats need a new idea. . . . Washington Post columnist Haynes Johnson says that if it is true that “the 18-to-25 age bracket is 4 or 5 to 1 Republican,” then “we are witnessing something more historic this fall than the re-election of another President. We are seeing a changing of the political order.” . . . According to Gallup, the registration gap between the front-running Democratic Party and the Republican Party has narrowed by eight points since 1980, although the Democrats still lead 42 to 28, independents remaining steady at 30 per cent. . . . As of now, says Reagan campaign director Ed Rollins, 29 per cent of registered Democrats would vote for Reagan; he estimates Reagan needs only 25 per cent of the Dems to carry the election. . . . Washington Post columnist David Broder concluded a column titled “Why Reagan Is Winning” with the comment: “He is winning on low inflation, a rise in real income for the record number of employed, and leadership palpably stronger than that of his recent predecessors. Give him his due, dear liberals, but do not sign any articles of surrender.”

Mid-September figures put Reagan between 9 (Harris) and thirty (NBC News) points ahead of Mondale, with NBC finding only 4 per cent of the voters still undecided, an amazingly low figure this early in the campaign. Same poll shows 63 per cent of voters think George Bush would make a better President than Geraldine Ferraro; among Democrats, 59 per cent were happy that Mrs. Ferraro was nominated, but only 40 per cent of them think she would make a better President than Bush. Stranger still, among voters who described themselves as liberals, 44 per cent “feel closer” to Reagan than to Mondale. . . . Mondale’s deficit reduction plan, it turns out, didn’t play in Peoria. An ABC/ Washington Post poll following the speech shows that 75 per cent of the people think Reagan’s predecessors were responsible for the deficit; 50 per cent put the blame on Congress. . . . It wasn’t exactly a shot in the arm to Mondale campaign when Gary Hart said on Cable News Network that if he had been the candidate he’d be leading Reagan in 12 states by now.