Testing the Bradley Effect

IN 1982, California gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley went into Election Day leading in the polls. He lost in a squeaker. In 1989, New York City mayoral candidate David Dinkins had as much as an 18-point lead in the polls over his Republican opponent, Rudy Giuliani. On Election Day, he eked out a narrow victory. That same year, Virginia gubernatorial candidate Douglas Wilder enjoyed as much as a 15-point lead, only to win by a few thousand votes out of nearly 2 million cast.

All three candidates were black. These peculiar results have induced political observers to ask whether there is a systematic “Bradley Effect”-i.e., whether black candidates can expect to poll better among white voters than they perform at the ballot box. As Harvard University post-doctoral fellow Daniel Hopkins recently put it, “During a survey, respondents may be less likely to indicate voting intentions that are socially stigmatized, such as their unwillingness to support a black candidate.”

About the Author

Jay Cost

Jay Cost is a visiting fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and the Center for Faith and Freedom at Grove City College.

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IN 1982, California gubernatorial candidate Tom Bradley went into Election Day leading in the polls. He lost in a squeaker. In 1989, New York City mayoral candidate David Dinkins had as much as an 18-point lead in the polls over his Republican opponent, Rudy Giuliani. On Election Day, he eked out a narrow victory. That same year, Virginia gubernatorial candidate Douglas Wilder enjoyed as much as a 15-point lead, only to win by a few thousand votes out of nearly 2 million cast.

All three candidates were black. These peculiar results have induced political observers to ask whether there is a systematic “Bradley Effect”-i.e., whether black candidates can expect to poll better among white voters than they perform at the ballot box. As Harvard University post-doctoral fellow Daniel Hopkins recently put it, “During a survey, respondents may be less likely to indicate voting intentions that are socially stigmatized, such as their unwillingness to support a black candidate.”