Can Iran Be Deterred?

IRAN’S rulers want nuclear weapons, and the carrot-sans-stick diplomacy of Europe is not changing their minds. Neither is the U.N. Security Council, which is too fractured, and too dependent on Iranian oil, to impose effective sanctions. We have not reached the dead end of the diplomatic alley quite yet, but in all likelihood the United States will eventually have to decide whether it is willing to fight a war to stop Iran from going nuclear.

The answer to that question depends largely on how dangerous we think a nuclear Iran would be. And here there are two views. The first view-and, in my opinion, the correct one-is that Iran’s building even a single atomic bomb would constitute a uniquely terrifying threat for which there is no obvious historical parallel. The second view is that, rotten though the Iranian regime may be, we have seen fiercer foes, we deterred and contained them, and we can do it again: so relax.

About the Author

Jason Lee Steorts

Jason Lee Steorts is a former managing editor of National Review.

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IRAN’S rulers want nuclear weapons, and the carrot-sans-stick diplomacy of Europe is not changing their minds. Neither is the U.N. Security Council, which is too fractured, and too dependent on Iranian oil, to impose effective sanctions. We have not reached the dead end of the diplomatic alley quite yet, but in all likelihood the United States will eventually have to decide whether it is willing to fight a war to stop Iran from going nuclear.

The answer to that question depends largely on how dangerous we think a nuclear Iran would be. And here there are two views. The first view-and, in my opinion, the correct one-is that Iran’s building even a single atomic bomb would constitute a uniquely terrifying threat for which there is no obvious historical parallel. The second view is that, rotten though the Iranian regime may be, we have seen fiercer foes, we deterred and contained them, and we can do it again: so relax.